Pitch-by-pitch Monte Carlo — toy physics, not Statcast. Full-game mode now uses per-team top-3 rotation slots (named SP, K/start → whiff modifier) and 9-slot batting orders with different contact/power profiles for spots 1–5 vs the bottom of the order. Calibrated for plausibility; for posted-line +EV use /picks + the prop Monte Carlo engine.
Sim engines are free. Premium picks, live +EV board & write-ups are members only — $29/mo (7-day trial) · Lifetime $249.99
K expectation vs matchup: listed K/start (or preset tier) is a simplified prior mapped through pitcherProfile / PITCH_MOD, not Statcast pitch-to-pitch. Batters set the base outcome mix (preset, named hitter, or per-slot order skills); that table is merged with the SP modifier, then each PA is one sample from the cumulative distribution. Full game applies a small capped nudge to the SP modifier when the opposing nine’s toy baseline K% profile is unusually high or low (see nudgePitchModForOpposingSlotK).
Slots 1–9 use order-specific hitter skill buckets; SP choice sets K/BB/HR environment from listed K/start or preset tier (resolvePitchModFromSpSelect). Updates are editorial snapshots — wire Statcast / your pipeline for production-grade accuracy.