Prop Monte Carlo lab

Most members should start on Premium picks — today’s locked five, the live +EV board, edge % vs the market, and one-click Monte Carlo on each row (same engine as this page). Use this lab when you want a sandbox: paste custom p10–p90, tweak model win %, or open a deep link from another tool.

After you run a sim, you get two plain answers: chance this bet cashes (sim win %) and whether it’s +EV or −EV at the price you entered. Optional p10–p90 tighten the draw; leave them blank to use a band from model win %.

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This lab is free. Full desk + live sheet — $29/mo (7-day trial) · Lifetime $249.99

Today’s premium props

Sign in on /picks (saved email) to list today’s five with edge % — then load any row into the form below.

Build row

For PRA / P+R / P+A / R+A, optional leg medians (projected pts / reb / ast) tighten the sim — same fields as p50_pts / live board rows.

Results

Model vs book · Kelly · confidence band
Model cash %
Book break-even
Sim cash %
Edge (sim − book)
Model EV
Sim EV
¼ Kelly (sim)
95% band (sim)

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