Vegas win% + ITD finish% (your board) × SaberSim granular stats. Run 1 to 50,000 sims per fight — at 1 sim you get a single granular play-by-play; at scale you get the true distribution. DK MMA Classic scoring.
Straight from the sims: who's overpriced (expensive, but the simulated DK output doesn't justify the salary — fade) and who's a live-dog leverage piece (underdog with real finish upside the field is off). Build leverage, fade the price traps.
Realistic models how MMA cards actually hit — most winning lineups carry 1–2 dogs, some go all-chalk, a few are 3-dog darts. Dogs flagged red; ceiling is finish-aware (R1 KO jackpot).
Sourcing: your MMA board (Vegas win% · ITD%) + SaberSim DK stat projections (sig strikes, knockdowns, takedowns, control). DK MMA: sig +0.5 · strike +0.2 · TD +5 · KD +10 · round-win R1 +90 / R2 +70 / R3 +45 / R4/5 +40 · decision +30 · quick-win +25. MadLabs builder →