Everything lives on one page now — the Lineup Builder — and it works the same way for every sport. Three steps, top to bottom. This page walks through each one, then covers the settings that actually change your results.
Open the Lineup Builder Open the Showdown Lab9,803 entries · $18 entry · $50,000 to 1st · 1,961 paid (20%). If it says Estimated payouts, the prize ladder is modelled. See the next section to make it exact.ROI is only as good as the payout ladder behind it. If you only give the builder a field size, entry fee, first prize and cash line, it models the ladder — close, but not exact, and the page will say Estimated payouts.
To make it exact, takes about ten seconds:
It reads ordinals and ranges in whatever shape DK gives them:
1st $50,000
2nd $15,000
4th - 5th $5,000
26th - 200th $100It will then tell you how many rows it read, how many paid positions that is, the total prize money, and the implied rake — and it warns you if the ladder pays more positions than there are entries, or more money than the entry fees collect.
Above the lineups is a one-line verdict — read that first. It tells you the average expected ROI across your set, the average chance to cash, how often your best lineup wins outright, your heaviest exposure and who it is, and the stack mix that actually landed.
Then each lineup card:
| Chip | What it means |
|---|---|
| Proj | Simulated average score, not the raw projection sum. |
| Ceil | 95th-percentile outcome — the score this lineup hits on a good day. |
| ROI | Expected return on the entry fee for this contest. A * means the lineup cashed too rarely in simulation for the number to be reliable yet. |
| 1st | Probability it finishes first in the real field. |
| Top1% | Probability of a top-1% finish. This is what large-field GPPs actually pay for. |
| Cash | Probability of finishing inside the paid positions. |
| Own | Total projected ownership of the lineup. Lower means more leverage on the field. |
| 6/6 | MMA only. Probability every fighter in the lineup wins his bout. |
You do not need to open this drawer. Everything in it already has a sensible default for the build type you picked. When you do want it:
| Setting | What it does |
|---|---|
| Lineups | How many to return. Matches your contest's entry limit by default. |
| Rank by | Best overall is the composite and the right default. Expected ROI is pure money. Chance to win for a single bullet at first place. Chance to cash for double-ups. |
| Variance | Widens the simulated spread. Higher leans the set toward volatile players — correct for large-field GPPs, wrong for cash. |
| Min / max total own % | Ownership rails. See below. |
| Force underdogs | MMA only. Minimum non-favourites per lineup. |
| Stack rules | MLB only. See below. |
A stack shape written as 5-3 means five hitters from one team and three from another. DraftKings caps a team at five hitters in MLB Classic, so 5-3, 5-2, 4-4, 4-3, 4-2, 3-3 and 3-2 are the shapes that actually get built. Pitchers never count toward a stack.
30 in 5-3 on a 150-max and 45 of your lineups come back 5-3.20-Max and 150-Max start with a GPP mix already filled in, because that is how large-field MLB tournaments are won. Cash and Single-Entry start unstacked. No stack rules clears everything; GPP mix restores the default.
Max total own % is the chalk cap, and it is the single most effective control on this page. A 150-max set with no cap drifts toward 150 versions of the field's lineup. Setting a ceiling forces the builder to find different ways to get to the same projection.
Both are applied while the pool is built, not filtered at the end, so they shape what gets simulated rather than throwing away work.
MMA is scored differently to everything else, because a losing fighter scores almost nothing. Six winners is not a bonus — it is close to a requirement for a top finish.
Same three steps. NASCAR has no positions and no stacking — six drivers, one salary cap — so the stack panel and underdog control stay hidden. What matters here is place-differential: the simulation already prices starting position into each driver's outcome, so you do not need to hand-adjust for it.
The export uses DK's own player IDs, so it uploads without re-matching names.
Something you set was too tight to satisfy — usually a stack rule the slate cannot fill, an ownership cap with no lineups inside it, or too many locks and fades. The builder relaxes the minimum-difference rule before it gives up, and the build line says what it could not fill.
Because that is often the truth. A contest pays out less than it takes in, and the average entry loses. Positive ROI means the tool thinks that specific lineup beats the rake in that specific contest — it should not be the normal case.
The pool is built with randomness on purpose, so you get genuine diversity rather than the same ten lineups with one player swapped. The ranking is stable; the pool underneath it is not.
* after an ROI mean?That lineup cashed in too few simulations for its ROI to be trustworthy yet. The number is shrunk toward zero rather than shown at full confidence.
Retired to the archive. Old links still work — they redirect there rather than 404.