A wide-favorite card that looks chalky on the surface and plays anything but. Here's where the real finish equity is, which favorites to anchor, the leverage hiding under 20% ownership, and how we're building it on DraftKings.
The moneylines are wide — six fighters sit at -315 or shorter — but wide favorites don't automatically mean safe DFS. In MMA, what wins you money isn't picking winners, it's finishes: DraftKings rewards a stoppage far more than a decision. So the question on a chalk-heavy slate like this isn't "who wins," it's "who wins early, and who's underpriced or under-owned relative to that finish equity."
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Core plays, the leverage under 20% ownership, the fades, the finish-equity board, and our DraftKings build rules for cash and GPP.
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💥 Finish-equity board
DK MMA scoring is built on finishes and round bonuses, so we rank by the odds-implied probability of a stoppage, not just a win:
| Fighter | ML | Win% | Finish% | Rd-1% |
|---|
| Iwo Baraniewski | -385 | 76% | 66% | 57% |
| Alessandro Costa | -530 | ~84% | 67% | — |
| Jeisla Chaves | -420 | 74% | 43% | 22% |
| Marcus McGhee | -480 | ~83% | 49% | — |
| Brendan Allen | — | — | 43% | — |
| Fares Ziam | -335 | ~77% | 31% | — |
🔑 Core plays
Iwo Baraniewski (-385 vs. Junior Tafa)
The model's clearest anchor: a 66% finish probability and a slate-leading 57% chance it ends in round one. Every one of his pro wins has come by stoppage, and he draws an opponent in Tafa who's been finished in four straight losses and struggles to keep fights standing. The only real risk is the one that follows every undersized power-finisher — if it goes long and the cardio question gets answered the hard way. But for a single-lineup or cash build, the early-finish equity is the best on the board. Expect heavy ownership (north of 50%); that's the cost of the safest finish on the card.
Jeisla Chaves (-420 vs. Yuneisy Duben)
A UFC newcomer the field will overlook simply because she's unknown — and that's the opportunity. She's 7-0 with four KOs, throws genuinely high volume on the feet, and draws a debut-stumbling opponent who was knocked out early in her own first appearance. The odds give her a 74% win / 43% finish line, and we project her ownership down around 20% while higher-profile favorites in the same price range soak up the chalk. High finish equity + low ownership is the exact profile that wins tournaments. Core in GPP, and a strong pivot down from the priciest favorites that frees up salary.
Both sides of Muhammad vs. Bonfim (main event)
The five-round main event is binary for DFS in a useful way: Belal Muhammad scores big if he turns it into a wrestling grind (his blueprint against Wonderboy, Luque, and Edwards), while Gabriel Bonfim — younger, explosive, with the higher finish probability — scores big if he lands early on the feet. The odds are near a coin flip (Belal ~52% / Bonfim ~48%), but Bonfim is cheaper, lower-owned, and the better points-per-dollar play. In cash, rostering one or both is close to a no-brainer at the price. In large-field GPP, leaning Bonfim is the leverage side, since Muhammad's projected ownership (~50%) doesn't match a matchup where he may spend rounds losing the striking exchanges.
🎯 Leverage — the under-20% board
Chelsea Chandler (-130 vs. Priscila Cachoeira)
A binary fight the field is sleeping on: Chandler projects around 23% owned despite being a favorite with a clear grappling path (takedowns, top control, ground-and-pound) against an opponent who's been finished repeatedly on the mat. The flip side — Cachoeira's last two wins are both first-round KOs, and she's the more dangerous striker if it stays standing — which is why both sides are live and the winner should score well. A genuine leverage spot in GPP.
Santiago Luna (+110 vs. Bryce Mitchell)
A 22-year-old, undefeated, ex-national-champion wrestler whose explosive chain-wrestling already translated to a 118-DK-point, five-takedown decision in his last UFC start. Mitchell has historically struggled with athletic, explosive pressure, and the line has crept toward a pick'em all week. At a plus price with a high-workrate floor, Luna is one of the best dual-threat underdog plays on the slate — elite in all formats.
Jordan Leavitt (+150 vs. Joanderson Brito) & Fares Ziam (-335 vs. Tom Nolan)
Leavitt has a clean grappling path against a Brito who's posted just 47% takedown defense across nine UFC fights and was controlled for nearly 14 minutes by Pat Sabatini — Leavitt's a proven GPP-winning grappler when he's overmatched on the feet. Ziam is the overlooked finisher: some of the best finishing numbers in his range, a ~40% implied chance to end it early, and projected ownership around 20% while the field chases the bigger names. Two strong leverage darts.
⚠️ Fades / cautions
- Over-stacking the Baraniewski + main-event chalk. The combination of Iwo plus a main-event fighter will be the single most popular core on the slate. Rostering it is fine — building every lineup around it isn't. If you use that combo in GPP, force at least one or two fighters under 20% owned around it.
- The mid-range pileup. Brito/Leavitt, Allen, and Luna/Mitchell will all be heavily owned by people scrambling for affordable pieces. Be deliberate about which mid-tier you take and where you differentiate.
- Treating wide favorites as automatic. This isn't a strong DFS card if all the chalk hits — so lean into variance. Play more underdogs, leave salary on the table, and don't be afraid of a low-scoring main event.
🏗️ DraftKings build rules (6 fighters, $50K)
- Cash / double-ups: anchor your safest finish (Baraniewski), add both main-event fighters or your favorite of the two, and round out with safe-floor favorites. Try to cap it at two underdogs unless one is genuinely mispriced. You don't need to finish first — you just need to beat the first loser.
- GPP: never roster both fighters from the same fight. Include 1–2 higher-owned anchors (~35%+) and 1–2 plays under ~20% (the Chandler/Chaves/Ziam/Leavitt tier). Leave $200–$300 on the table for uniqueness — $500–$1,400 in massive fields.
- Main-event rule: generally include one main-event fighter for the five-round scoring ceiling — but this is a slate where fading the main event for a low-scoring-fight build is a legitimate leverage move.
- Bankroll: this is a thin card — keep it to ~2–3% of your roll.
Data note: win / finish / round-1 probabilities are derived from the live betting markets; ownership figures are projections. Confirm final salaries, odds, and any late changes before lock. Build every angle in the MMA DK Lab.
Bottom line
- Core: Baraniewski, Chaves, and a main-event fighter (lean Bonfim for leverage)
- Leverage: Chandler, Luna, Ziam, Leavitt — the under-20% tier
- Fade: over-owning the Iwo + main-event combo without low-owned pieces around it
- Approach: thin card — embrace variance, play dogs, leave salary, build unique