Round 2 PGA, single-round Showdown. The top plays overall, the best ball-strikers, the best value, the best cash plays — and the super-sharp low-owned leverage that wins tournaments.
The free look: the top plays by projection. Studs, ball-strikers, value, cash plays, and the leverage board are below the line.
How to attack the Round 2 slate
Three rules frame every decision:
1. Ball-striking over everything. Easy greens mean putting doesn't separate the field — tee-to-green does. A golfer flushing it with a cold putter still has a huge ceiling here; a hot putter who's spraying it is a trap.
2. Ceiling in GPP, floor in cash. R1 went low, so tournaments need a 60+ single-round number — pay up for upside and take low-owned swings. Cash flips it: safest projected floor, fade volatility.
3. Use the wave to break ties. The AM wave (tee ~6:45–8:46) gets the calmer, cooler start; the PM wave (12:00–14:01) plays the warmer afternoon. It's benign this week — a tiebreaker, not a reason to fade a wave. Check the Friday morning gust report; if it's up, lean the early starters.
Top plays overall (the studs)
Scottie Scheffler — $14,600 · 25.0% · PM (12:43)
#1 tee-to-green in the field, -6 through R1, and the single most likely player to post the slate-high round. The highest floor and one of the highest ceilings on the board. How to use: mandatory in cash; in GPP he's the leverage decision — a quarter of the field has him, so playing him is fine but a Scheffler-off build is your cleanest differentiation.
Kurt Kitayama — $9,900 · 26.5% · AM (7:18)
Defending champ, #8 tee-to-green and #4 in SG: Approach, calmer AM wave, -3 in R1. The profile is perfect — but he's now the highest-owned golfer on the slate. How to use: a cash lock for the floor; in large-field GPP he's the one to be underweight, because everyone else is on him.
Casey Jarvis — $7,700 · 13.0% · AM (7:40)
#3 in the field in tee-to-green at a value price, with a top-tier projection and only 13% ownership. The best fit-to-price-to-ownership combination on the whole board. How to use: a core play in every format — elite in cash for the floor, and still leverage-friendly in GPP because he's under the chalk studs above him.
Also in the top tier: Maverick McNealy ($9,800, 22.6% — #7 T2G, but chalky), Tom Kim ($9,600, 20.2% — elite irons, AM wave), Jackson Koivun ($9,100, 18.4% — #10 T2G), and Gary Woodland ($8,400, 13.8% — 39.7 proj and -7 in R1, the best of the mid-priced anchors).
Best ball-strikers (real Strokes Gained)
The stat that wins here, straight from the field SG data — overall tee-to-green plus the off-the-tee and approach leaders that create the birdies.
🎯 SG: Tee-to-Green (overall)
| Rank | Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own% |
|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | $14,600 | 45.9 | 25.0% |
| 3 | Casey Jarvis | $7,700 | 39.5 | 13.0% |
| 4 | Jake Knapp | $9,400 | 38.5 | 10.5% |
| 5 | Ben Kohles | $7,700 | 38.6 | 13.6% |
| 6 | Christiaan Bezuidenhout | $8,000 | 38.9 | 12.5% |
| 7 | Maverick McNealy | $9,800 | 40.6 | 22.6% |
| 8 | Kurt Kitayama | $9,900 | 41.5 | 26.5% |
| 9 | Mac Meissner | $8,300 | 36.8 | 5.5% |
| 10 | Jackson Koivun | $9,100 | 39.8 | 18.4% |
| 11 | Zac Blair | $7,300 | 38.4 | 10.6% |
| 12 | Adrien Dumont De Chassart | $7,000 | 33.8 | 0.7% |
| 14 | Doug Ghim | $9,000 | 38.7 | 13.2% |
Ryder Cowan shows #2 in T2G on a four-round sample — ignore it, that's noise.
🚀 Off-the-Tee leaders
Michael Brennan is #1 in the field off the tee (+0.85) — and he opened -6 at just 7.8% owned. That's the headline leverage play (below). Others: Cameron Champ (#2), Jesper Svensson (#4, -6 in R1, 10% owned), Neal Shipley (#6), Doug Ghim (#7), Aldrich Potgieter (#8, longest in the field), Pierceson Coody (#10).
🏹 Approach leaders
Where the birdies are made. Ben Kohles is #1 in approach (+1.14) and leads the tournament — form and fit agree. Then Zac Blair (#3), Kurt Kitayama (#4), Corey Conners (#7), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (#8), Tom Kim (#10). If you want the exact skill this course rewards, start here.
Best value guys
These unlock the studs — highest projection per dollar, and most are in the calmer AM wave.
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Val/1K | Own% | Wave |
|---|
| Billy Horschel | $6,600 | 37.0 | 5.61 | 5.0% | AM 7:18 |
| Keita Nakajima | $7,000 | 38.8 | 5.54 | 11.2% | AM 8:24 |
| Seamus Power | $6,700 | 37.0 | 5.52 | 6.3% | AM 8:01 |
| Jesper Svensson | $7,000 | 38.3 | 5.47 | 10.0% | AM 8:34 |
| Matti Schmid | $7,000 | 38.2 | 5.46 | 8.8% | AM 6:55 |
| Joel Dahmen | $6,700 | 36.6 | 5.46 | 5.6% | AM 7:51 |
| Tom Hoge | $7,100 | 38.1 | 5.37 | 9.2% | AM 6:45 |
| John Parry | $7,100 | 37.9 | 5.34 | 8.5% | AM 8:34 |
| Zac Blair | $7,300 | 38.4 | 5.26 | 10.6% | AM 7:07 |
| Michael Kim | $7,400 | 39.0 | 5.27 | 13.4% | AM 7:07 |
⭐ Best value overall: Keita Nakajima ($7,000, 38.8 proj, #25 T2G) and Seamus Power ($6,700) are the two that pair a real projection with a real ball-striking profile — they're the value you can play in both cash and GPP without flinching.
🔥 Super-sharp leverage plays (get different from the field)
This is where tournaments are won. The field is jammed onto Kitayama (26.5%) and Scheffler (25%) — so the edge is rostering golfers with similar upside at a fraction of the ownership. These are the sharp plays for Friday.
| Golfer | Salary | Proj | Own% | The leverage case |
|---|
| Keith Mitchell | $9,500 | 38.1 | 9.7% | The #1 leverage play on the board. A big-hitting course fit projected right with the chalk studs — at a third of Kitayama's ownership. If he goes low, you leap the field. |
| Michael Brennan | $7,700 | 37.8 | 7.8% | #1 off-the-tee in the entire field, coming off -6, sub-$8K, single digits owned. The definition of a sharp GPP ceiling piece. |
| Corey Conners | $8,900 | 38.4 | 10.3% | One of the purest ball-strikers alive (#7 approach), and his only weakness — putting — doesn't matter on these greens. 10% owned is a gift. |
| Jake Knapp | $9,400 | 38.5 | 10.5% | #4 tee-to-green with a bomber's ceiling at a 10% tag — the leverage way to get elite ball-striking in the $9K range. |
| Kevin Roy | $7,000 | 36.0 | 2.8% | Opened -6 and it's backed by the projection — at under 3% owned, he's a near-naked leverage dart with real form. |
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,500 | 37.3 | 6.1% | -7 in R1, strong course history at TPC Twin Cities, 6% owned. Live form the field is ignoring. |
| Billy Horschel | $6,600 | 37.0 | 5.0% | The best value on the board (5.61/1K) at just 5% owned and in the AM wave — value and leverage in one. |
🔥 The sharpest play on the slate
Keith Mitchell ($9,500, 9.7%). This is your single best leverage lever. He projects a hair behind the $9K–$10K chalk (Kitayama, McNealy, Tom Kim, all 20%+ owned) but comes at under 10% — and his big-drive, strong-iron profile is a textbook TPC Twin Cities fit. Any Round 2 where Mitchell posts a 60-burger and the chalk studs don't, the Mitchell rosters run the table. Ship him as your anchor in GPP.
Best cash plays (floor first)
Cash is a different game — you want the safest projected floor and you happily overlap with the field. Play the high-projection, consistent scorers and skip the darts entirely.
Cash core (mix and match): Scottie Scheffler, Kurt Kitayama, Maverick McNealy, Casey Jarvis, Gary Woodland, Michael Kim, Zac Blair, Keita Nakajima, Seamus Power. All project well with a safe floor; the value names (Nakajima, Power, Blair, Kim) let you fit two anchors.
🛡 #1 — Balanced Cash, no Scheffler ($48,800 · proj 236.0 — highest floor)- Kurt Kitayama $9,900 · Maverick McNealy $9,800 · Casey Jarvis $7,700 · Michael Kim $7,400 · Zac Blair $7,300 · Seamus Power $6,700
🛡 #2 — Scheffler Cash ($50,000 · proj 235.6)- Scottie Scheffler $14,600 · Casey Jarvis $7,700 · Michael Kim $7,400 · Seamus Power $6,700 · Matti Schmid $7,000 · Paul Peterson $6,600
Fades & chalk to be different from
| Player | Own% | The case |
|---|
| Kurt Kitayama | 26.5% | Great play, wrong price of admission in GPP — he's the highest-owned golfer on the slate. Fine in cash; be underweight in large-field tournaments and pivot the leverage above. |
| Sam Stevens | 14.1% | Priced and owned like a core, but he sits outside the top-80 in tee-to-green this stretch. Better $8K options in Woodland and Meissner. A fade in every format. |
| Scottie Scheffler | 25.0% | Not a fade — a leverage decision. Lock in cash; a Scheffler-off build is your best big-field differentiation. |
| Sub-$6,300 min darts | — | The bottom of the board with poor SG and low projections are coin flips — one GPP swing at most, never in cash. |
Cap-legal GPP builds (no captain · 6 golfers · $50K)
Leverage-forward tournament lineups — one anchor plus low-owned ball-strikers, and two Scheffler-off options to separate from the field.
🚀 #3 — Ball-Striker Leverage, no Scheffler ($50,000 · proj 226.1 · own 47%)- Keith Mitchell $9,500 · Jake Knapp $9,400 · Corey Conners $8,900 · Michael Brennan $7,700 · Kevin Roy $7,000 · Emiliano Grillo $7,500
🚀 #4 — Low-Owned MME ($48,900 · proj 225.3 · own 44%)- Keith Mitchell $9,500 · Jake Knapp $9,400 · Michael Brennan $7,700 · Max Greyserman $7,800 · Emiliano Grillo $7,500 · Kevin Roy $7,000
🚀 #5 — Scheffler + Low-Owned Upside ($50,000 · proj 230.4 · own 53%)- Scottie Scheffler $14,600 · Michael Brennan $7,700 · Kevin Roy $7,000 · Kevin Yu $7,300 · Seamus Power $6,700 · Joel Dahmen $6,700
All builds validated: 6 golfers, no captain, $48,700–$50,000 on DK's Round 2 salaries. Cash builds are in the section above.
Wave allocation — how many AM vs PM to roster
In a single-round Showdown, scores within a wave are correlated — if the wind blows one wave off the course, everyone in it suffers together, which makes wave allocation a real lever. This week is benign, so start balanced and only tilt on a genuine Friday-morning wind signal.
| Contest | Default split (of 6) | If AM clearly calmer |
|---|
| Cash / H2H | 3 AM / 3 PM | 4 AM / 2 PM |
| Single-entry GPP | 3 AM / 3 PM | 4 AM / 2 PM |
| Large-field MME | 3 AM / 3 PM core | Add 5 AM / 1 PM leverage lineups |
Rules: never fewer than 2 from a wave without a weather signal; a 6-0 wave stack is a pure MME dart for a clear forecast edge only. Absent real wind divergence (like this week), 3/3 balanced is correct.
Optimal ownership by contest type (builder settings)
Cash wants overlap with the field; tournaments want separation. Configure these as exposure rules in the builder.
| Contest | Lineups | Cumulative own / lineup | Max single-player exposure | Leverage requirement |
|---|
| Cash / 50-50 | 1–3 | 100–115% | Best plays at 100% | None — embrace chalk. |
| Single-entry GPP | 1 | 75–95% | — | ≥1 sub-10% piece. |
| Small-field GPP | up to 20 | 70–100% | Chalk ≤ 50% | 1–2 leverage plays. |
| Large-field MME | 20–150 | 66–86% | Top chalk ≤ 30–35% | 2/2/2 shape: 2 ≥15% · 2 @ 5–10% · 2 sub-5%. |
Wire it in the builder: cap the chalk (Kitayama and Scheffler — hold them ~30–35% in MME, below the field), set min-exposure floors on the leverage plays (Mitchell, Brennan, Roy) so they show up, and set a per-lineup cumulative-ownership ceiling so the optimizer diversifies on its own. In cash, remove the caps and let it build the chalkiest, highest-projected lineup.
⚡ The Round 2 Playbook (quick-hit)
The one thing: buy ball-striking. TPC Twin Cities greens are among the easiest on Tour — tee-to-green wins, putting is a tiebreaker.
Top plays overall: Scheffler ($14.6K, floor+ceiling), Kitayama ($9.9K, but 26.5% chalk), Casey Jarvis ($7.7K, #3 T2G + value).
Best ball-strikers: the T2G board — Jarvis, Knapp, Kohles, Bezuidenhout, Blair — plus Brennan off the tee and Kohles/Blair/Kitayama on approach.
Best value: Keita Nakajima ($7.0K) and Seamus Power ($6.7K) — projection + fit. Then Horschel, Schmid, Hoge.
Super-sharp leverage: Keith Mitchell ($9.5K, 9.7% — sharpest play on the slate), Michael Brennan ($7.7K, 7.8%), Corey Conners ($8.9K, 10.3%), Kevin Roy ($7.0K, 2.8%).
Best cash plays: Scheffler/Kitayama/McNealy anchors + Jarvis + safe value (Power, Nakajima, Kim, Blair). Floor over ceiling, no darts.
Fades: Sam Stevens (owned, poor fit); be underweight the mega-chalk Kitayama/Scheffler in big-field GPP.
Wave: 3 AM / 3 PM balanced; check Friday's morning wind and tilt to 4/2 only if it's up.
Ownership: cash = embrace chalk (100–115% cumulative); large-field GPP = get different (66–86% cumulative, 2/2/2 shape — 2 ≥15%, 2 @ 5–10%, 2 sub-5%).
Bottom line — Round 2 PGA
- Top plays: Scheffler (floor+ceiling), Casey Jarvis (fit+value), Keith Mitchell (leverage), Kitayama (chalk cash lock).
- Ball-strikers: Jarvis, Knapp, Kohles, Bezuidenhout, Blair; Brennan off the tee.
- Value: Keita Nakajima, Seamus Power, Billy Horschel, Zac Blair.
- Leverage: Keith Mitchell, Michael Brennan, Corey Conners, Kevin Roy, Emiliano Grillo.
- Cash vs GPP: cash = chalk + floor; GPP = low-owned ball-strikers, lean Scheffler-off.
By James · CourtEdge Research. Built on the CourtEdge R2 model — projections, real projected ownership, Strokes Gained (tee-to-green / off-the-tee / approach), DK Round 2 salaries, and the R1 leaderboard. Putting down-weighted — TPC Twin Cities greens are among the easiest on Tour.