Devig'd fair home-run probabilities from sharp markets (Pinnacle / Novig / consensus), ranked. The Live tab recomputes each hitter's remaining-game HR probability as plate appearances tick off — so a 25% pre-game bat that's already had 2 quiet ABs updates downward in real time.
Pre-game board
Live model
#
Hitter
Fair HR%
Best price
Edge
Fair% = no-vig probability after removing book margin from two-sided sharp lines. "Best price" is the most generous Over 0.5 HR currently posted. +EV flag fires when the best price implies a lower probability than our fair number.
Live in-game HR probability
Pick a hitter, set where the game is, and the model returns the probability they go deep in their remaining plate appearances (Poisson on per-PA HR rate from the pre-game fair line). If they've already homered it locks to HIT.