PGA · GENESIS SCOTTISH OPEN · FINAL ROUND R4 · SUNDAY
⛳ R4 Final-Round Playbook — The Fog Marathon: My T2G Top 10, the Putter Board & the 6.6%-Owned Superstar
⏱ 20-minute playbook · Sunday is 28 holes for the leaders: R3 finishes at first light, R4 turns straight around. our model pulled its R4 numbers because of the suspensions — we didn't. Everything below runs on CourtEdge Analytics: projections, ownership, ceilings for all 71 golfers, live in the Golf Builder.
Article by James at CourtEdge · Sun 7/12 · Genesis Scottish Open, final round · CourtEdge Analytics · Proprietary Models
The free look — two numbers that decide Sunday: the ENE wind (10-15, gusting 20) blows OPPOSITE the direction the field practiced in — every hole plays backwards, and that's where ball-strikers separate from putters. And the field has made a massive mistake at the top: Rory McIlroy — 4th-best projection on the whole board — is 6.6% owned at $12,000 because of three bogeys in eight foggy holes. He has 28 holes to fix it. That's the tournament-winning seat.
🔒 COURTEDGE PREMIUM
The Saturday tier board is for members
Behind the paywall: my six favorite plays with the reasoning, the ranked captain board (cash + GPP seats), the all-top-20 punt tier, three cap-legal builds including the three-co-leader construction, and the live-sweat guide.
Monthly $29 · Free 3-day trial · Secured by Stripe · Card-on-file with cardholder name · Cancel anytime from your account
Already a member? Sign in:
🌫️ Read this first — the marathon changes everything
Two fog suspensions left the leaders with 10-11 holes of R3 to play at dawn, then R4 immediately after — 28-29 holes on Sunday legs. Meanwhile Johnny Keefer already FINISHED his 64 and sleeps in, and Kevin Roy and Wyndham Clark are nearly done. Fresh legs is a real, priceable edge today, and the field is only half-pricing it. Second structural edge: the ENE wind reverses the course. The guys who flight it and control spin — Tee-to-Green players — gain twice: once on the reversed holes, once against tired hands. T2G is the stat of the day, putting is the tiebreaker.
🏌️ The CourtEdge T2G Top 10 — the key-stat board
Our T2G Index blends final-round projection, ceiling, ball-striking pedigree on links, and Sunday workload. Own% = our projected large-field ownership.
#
Golfer
Sal
Proj
Ceil
Own%
The read
1
Matt Fitzpatrick
$10,800
47.2
69.4
33%
Co-leader, surging when the horn blew. The 150-deep rule: you don't fully fade the leader — pay the toll.
2
Chris Gotterup
$9,900
45.0
68.2
29%
Defending champ, won last week, flushing it. Peak-form T2G.
3
Wyndham Clark
$10,200
45.1
68.2
28%
−10, nearly done with R3 (rest edge), and wind has never scared him.
4
Tommy Fleetwood
$9,500
43.7
66.3
26%
The purest links ball-striker alive at 26%? The reversed wind is his cheat code.
5
Rory McIlroy
$12,000
44.5
67.4
7%
THE seat. Fourth-best projection, elite T2G, 28 holes to move — at single-digit ownership. Full case below.
6
Robert MacIntyre
$9,600
43.7
67.1
25%
−9, home wind specialist, 2024 champ here. Loves ugly weather.
7
Michael Thorbjornsen
$8,000
40.6
63.2
29%
Co-leader at a MID price — chalk that's earned. Best salary-relative seat among the leaders.
8
Tyrrell Hatton
$9,000
41.2
63.7
19%
Links pedigree, under-owned for the ceiling. Classic grumpy-Sunday charge spot.
9
Min Woo Lee
$9,200
43.3
66.1
31%
Former Scottish champ, −10 — but 28 holes and the HIGHEST ownership of the non-leaders. Slight underweight.
10
Jordan L. Smith
$8,100
38.8
61.8
15%
Elite DP World ball-striker, −10, still criminally cheap. Our Late-R3 gift keeps paying.
🎯 The McIlroy case — 6.6% owned, fourth-best projection
The field watched three bogeys in eight fog-soaked holes and left. Our model watched the same thing and shrugged: he's $12,000 with a 44.5 projection and a 67 ceiling — numbers that belong at 25%+ ownership, priced by the crowd at 6.6%. He has 10 holes of R3 to reset and a full R4 to charge, more total holes of upside than anyone near his class. This is the exact Glover lesson in reverse: last week we faded a front-runner and got burned; today the market is fading a superstar one bad morning too early. In 150-max, McIlroy is a 30-40% exposure. In single entries, he IS the build. If he ships a 65 with the field 93% elsewhere, the tournament is over.
🥅 The Putter Board — 15 flat sticks for the tiebreaker
T2G decides who gets the looks; these are the guys who cash them. Our reads, roughly ordered, all on today's slate:
1. Si Woo Kim $8,400 (17%) — one of the best pure putters of his generation, 62 ceiling. 2. Patrick Reed $8,600 (11%) — the short game never slumps; scrambler's course now. 3. Brian Harman — grinder's flat stick, wind-proof stroke. 4. Tyrrell Hatton — elite on slow links greens. 5. Robert MacIntyre — home greens, home reads. 6. Nick Taylor — walk-off pedigree, streaky heater. 7. Tom Kim $8,700 (25%) — fearless inside 10 feet. 8. Min Woo Lee — when it's hot it's scorching. 9. Sahith Theegala — touch putter, creative around links slopes. 10. Matt Fitzpatrick — mechanical, immune to pressure. 11. Adam Scott — the broomstick has aged into reliability. 12. Danny Willett — sneaky elite on slow greens. 13. Marcus Armitage $7,000 (7%) — hot blade carried his 64-adjacent run. 14. Kevin Roy $6,500 (8%) — putting is WHY he's −10. 15. Johnny Keefer $6,800 (28%) — rolled everything in the 64; fresh legs keep the stroke.
💎 STUDS:Fitzpatrick $10,800 (33%) ✅ the toll — leader respect, pay it in most builds · Clark $10,200 (28%) ✅🚀 rest edge + ceiling · Gotterup $9,900 (29%) ✅ form of his life · McIlroy $12,000 (7%) 🚀🚀 the leverage superstar · Rahm $10,100 (7.5%) 🚀 the second forgotten star — 64 ceiling, single digits.
⚙️ MID ($7,500-8,900):Thorbjornsen $8,000 (29%) ✅ co-leader at a mid price, correct chalk · Si Woo $8,400 (17%) ✅🚀 · Reed $8,600 (11%) 🚀 · Hovland $8,800 (7.9%) 🚀 class outlier at single digits · Spaun $8,300 (6%) 🚀 major winner, nobody cares · Kitayama $8,900 (3.2%) 🚀 the mid-tier ghost — 56 ceiling at 3%.
💰 VALUE ($6,500-7,400):Keefer $6,800 (28%) ✅ chalk you EAT — round of the day + only rested contender · Neergaard-Petersen $7,300 (18%) ✅ · McKibbin $7,100 (8.9%) 🚀 · Calum Hill $7,400 (5%) 🚀 · Schmid $7,000 (4.6%) 🚀 · Lopez-Chacarra $7,400 (3.5%) 🚀 pure ceiling dart.
🧨 THE SUB-5% $6K PUNT BOARD (unlock the studs):Eckroat $6,300 (3.7%, 53 ceiling) — the best punt on the slate · Molinari $6,400 (2%) — a literal T2G legend in a ball-striker's wind, at TWO percent · Saddier $6,100 (1.5%) · Norris $6,300 (1.3%) · Jamieson $6,200 (0.6%) — local knowledge, invisible ownership. Two of these seats fund Fitz + McIlroy in the same lineup.
🏗️ Contest attack
Large-field GPP: McIlroy or Rahm anchor + Thorbjornsen + Keefer + one putter-board mid + one punt. You're one 65 from the top with half the field's ownership. Single entry: Fitz + Thorbjornsen + Keefer core (the leaders + rest edge), one dart from the punt board. Cash: Fitz · Clark · Thorbjornsen · Keefer · RNP + best fit — floor everywhere, leader respected. Build it all in the Golf Builder — R4 slate is loaded with every number in this article — or lock your guys in the click-by-click flow.
our model sat this round out because of the fog. Every number above is ours — and like everything we publish, it gets graded tonight, win or lose.