Single round · no captain · 6 golfers · $50K. My top 10 plays, the leaderboard I'm fading, the weather angle, and the full sortable pool — how I'm attacking Round 3.
Here's the setup. Ben Kohles took the lead into the weekend at -9, with Jackson Koivun, Gary Woodland and Emiliano Grillo one back at -7, and Scottie Scheffler quietly lurking at -6. TPC Twin Cities is a scorable, bomber-friendly track, so Round 3 is going to be a birdie-fest — which is exactly how I want to attack a no-captain single-round showdown: chase the golfers who go low, not the ones who are simply in a good spot right now.
This is a 6-golfer, no-captain, $50,000 pool — pure "who shoots the lowest Round 3." No make-cut math, no four-round projection. Just today. Below is my full read: the weather, my top 10 plays with the reasoning, who I'm overweight and underweight, a sortable pool you can rank by projection or value yourself, and three cap-legal builds. Let's get into it.
My top 10 plays & why, the leaderboard fade, the weather/wave angle, my favorite plays for exposure, the sortable golfer pool, and three cap-legal builds.
My whole approach in a single-round showdown is simple: projected scoring beats current position. The field is going to gravitate to the names at the top of the leaderboard — that's human nature — but leaderboard position is yesterday's result. What I care about is who my projections say goes low today, and where the salary lets me build a roster that's both high-floor and differentiated. On a scorable course like this, I want ball-strikers and I want value, so I can afford one or two studs without punting the rest of my card.
Round 3 is warm and breezy — highs in the upper 80s (~88°F), sustained wind of 10–16 mph, and only about a 10% rain chance. That wind is the swing factor: 10–16 mph is enough to punish loose iron play but not brutal enough to stop the birdies on a soft, scorable track, so I'm still expecting low numbers.
The angle that matters: the leaders all tee off in the afternoon (Kohles 12:34, Koivun 12:15, Grillo 12:25, Scheffler 11:00). Minnesota summer wind tends to build through the afternoon, so the morning wave (7:00–9:00 tee times) can get the calmer window to attack. That's a subtle nudge toward a few early-tee value plays — Corey Conners (7:10), Max Greyserman (7:30) and John Parry (8:45) — who could post before the wind shows up.
Ranked, with the why. Projection · current position shown for each.
1 Scottie Scheffler $14,400 53.8 · T5 (-6)
The best player on the planet, in contention, and my top projection by five full points. Yes he's $14.4K, but he's the only golfer here whose floor and ceiling are both elite. In cash he's nearly mandatory; in a tournament he's the anchor you build value around.
2 Michael Kim $7,500 47.8 · T43 (-2)
My favorite value on the board, full stop — the best points-per-dollar number on the slate. A near-stud projection at a mid-tier price with room to move up the board. He's the salary reliever that lets you fit Scheffler and a second stud.
3 Jackson Koivun $9,500 47.1 · T2 (-7)
The one contender I actually trust. Young stud playing his best golf, genuinely in the hunt, and my model still loves his Round 3 upside. Unlike the rest of the top of the leaderboard, I'm happy to pay for this number.
4 Maverick McNealy $9,600 48.5 · T86 (E)
Pure bounce-back leverage. He's buried on the board, but my projections have him 3rd overall — a pure ball-striker due for a low one, and the field will be completely off him because of where he sits. That's exactly the low-owned upside I want.
5 Casey Jarvis $7,800 47.1 · T86 (E)
The second-best value on the slate with a near-stud projection. Another salary-saver with real ceiling that pairs perfectly with a Scheffler build. Chalky-value, but the number justifies it.
6 Kurt Kitayama $10,200 48.8 · T26 (-3)
My #2 overall projection. Elite ball-striker on a bomber's course, in solid position. A cleaner (if pricier) stud than the field realizes — a strong pivot off Scheffler.
7 Corey Conners $8,700 46.2 · T67 (-1)
The best iron player in the field. He's back in the pack — and that's the point: a low-owned bounce-back with a legit ceiling on a course that rewards pure ball-striking. My kind of leverage.
8 Sam Stevens $8,400 46.1 · T26 (-3)
Quietly one of the best mid-tier plays on the slate: strong projection, already in position, and priced where you can fit him alongside two studs.
9 Keith Mitchell $9,200 47.0 · T26 (-3)
Big off the tee, in decent shape, high projection. A clean stud-tier option to pivot to when you want to get off the chalkier names near the top.
10 Brian Harman $7,700 45.4 · T43 (-2)
Grinder with major-championship pedigree at a value price and a real floor. The type who quietly posts a solid number and pays off his salary while everyone chases ceiling.
If you're building for tomorrow, here's where I want my exposure concentrated:
The single-entry play is the balanced build — two studs plus the value core, high floor. The tournament play is fitting Scheffler and a second stud by leaning on Michael Kim and Jarvis, then taking one low-owned bounce-back (McNealy or Conners) as your ceiling swing.
Click any column header to sort (projection, value, salary, ownership). Default sort: projection. Ownership figures are CourtEdge projected ownership.
| Golfer | Tee | Salary | Proj ▾ | Value | Own% | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 11:00 | $14,400 | 53.8 | 0.4 | 21.0% | T5 (-6) |
| Kurt Kitayama | 10:00 | $10,200 | 48.8 | 1.7 | 22.2% | T26 (-3) |
| Maverick McNealy | 9:45 | $9,600 | 48.5 | 2.3 | 24.4% | T86 (E) |
| Michael Kim | 12:34 | $7,500 | 47.8 | 4.8 | 33.8% | T43 (-2) |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 11:00 | $9,700 | 47.1 | 0.8 | 17.3% | T67 (-1) |
| Jackson Koivun | 12:15 | $9,500 | 47.1 | 1.1 | 18.5% | T2 (-7) |
| Casey Jarvis | 9:34 | $7,800 | 47.1 | 3.6 | 28.5% | T86 (E) |
| Keith Mitchell | 9:25 | $9,200 | 47.0 | 1.4 | 19.6% | T26 (-3) |
| Tom Kim | 9:45 | $9,800 | 46.9 | 0.4 | 15.5% | T26 (-3) |
| Corey Conners | 7:10 | $8,700 | 46.2 | 1.4 | 19.0% | T67 (-1) |
| Jake Knapp | 8:19 | $9,100 | 46.1 | 0.7 | 16.1% | T26 (-3) |
| Sam Stevens | 10:00 | $8,400 | 46.1 | 1.7 | 20.1% | T26 (-3) |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 11:34 | $8,300 | 45.7 | 1.4 | 18.6% | T26 (-3) |
| Brian Harman | 11:55 | $7,700 | 45.4 | 2.0 | 20.7% | T43 (-2) |
| Gary Woodland | 11:25 | $8,900 | 45.2 | 0.1 | 13.0% | T2 (-7) |
| Jordan L. Smith | 7:30 | $8,000 | 45.1 | 1.3 | 17.7% | T86 (E) |
| Michael Brennan | 11:45 | $7,900 | 45.1 | 1.4 | 18.1% | T5 (-6) |
| Zac Blair | 12:04 | $7,700 | 44.3 | 0.9 | 15.4% | T26 (-3) |
| Max Greyserman | 7:30 | $7,400 | 44.3 | 1.4 | 17.4% | T43 (-2) |
| Ben Kohles | 12:34 | $8,500 | 44.2 | -0.3 | 10.6% | 1 (-9) |
| Davis Thompson | 10:30 | $7,600 | 44.2 | 1.0 | 15.8% | T26 (-3) |
| Lee Hodges | 11:10 | $7,600 | 44.1 | 0.9 | 15.3% | T26 (-3) |
| Jesper Svensson | 11:55 | $7,400 | 44.1 | 1.2 | 16.5% | T5 (-6) |
| Lucas Glover | 10:49 | $7,600 | 43.9 | 0.7 | 14.3% | T5 (-6) |
| John Parry | 8:45 | $7,000 | 43.9 | 1.6 | 17.9% | T43 (-2) |
| Emiliano Grillo | 12:25 | $7,700 | 43.8 | 0.5 | 13.4% | T2 (-7) |
| Kevin Roy | 10:49 | $7,300 | 43.8 | 1.1 | 15.8% | T5 (-6) |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 8:45 | $8,200 | 43.6 | -0.5 | 9.3% | T10 (-5) |
| Beau Hossler | 9:15 | $7,100 | 43.6 | 1.1 | 15.7% | T43 (-2) |
| Zachary Bauchou | 7:00 | $7,100 | 43.5 | 1.1 | 15.6% | T67 (-1) |
| Kevin Yu | 11:34 | $7,400 | 43.3 | 0.4 | 12.6% | T43 (-2) |
| Zecheng Dou | 10:10 | $7,000 | 43.3 | 1.0 | 15.0% | T14 (-4) |
| Denny McCarthy | 11:45 | $7,400 | 43.2 | 0.3 | 12.2% | T10 (-5) |
| Hao-Tong Li | 10:19 | $7,100 | 43.2 | 0.8 | 14.2% | T26 (-3) |
| Kris Ventura | 8:34 | $6,800 | 43.2 | 1.2 | 15.8% | T103 (+1) |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 8:34 | $7,100 | 43.0 | 0.6 | 13.2% | T86 (E) |
| Seamus Power | 10:30 | $6,900 | 42.9 | 0.8 | 13.9% | T26 (-3) |
| Billy Horschel | 12:04 | $6,900 | 42.9 | 0.8 | 13.9% | T14 (-4) |
| Ricky Castillo | 7:49 | $7,300 | 42.7 | -0.1 | 10.2% | T86 (E) |
| Austin Eckroat | 10:40 | $7,000 | 42.4 | 0.1 | 10.7% | T43 (-2) |
| Austin Smotherman | 11:10 | $6,900 | 42.4 | 0.3 | 11.5% | T26 (-3) |
| Matti Schmid | 8:00 | $7,200 | 42.3 | -0.3 | 9.0% | T14 (-4) |
| Patrick Fishburn | 8:10 | $6,900 | 42.2 | 0.1 | 10.6% | T67 (-1) |
| Chris Kirk | 7:10 | $6,800 | 42.1 | 0.1 | 10.5% | T67 (-1) |
| Joel Dahmen | 7:49 | $6,800 | 42.0 | 0.0 | 10.0% | T67 (-1) |
| Davis Chatfield | 9:25 | $6,500 | 41.7 | 0.1 | 10.4% | T43 (-2) |
| Rico Hoey | 7:19 | $7,100 | 41.6 | -0.8 | 6.8% | T14 (-4) |
| Neal Shipley | 7:40 | $6,800 | 41.5 | -0.5 | 8.0% | T67 (-1) |
| A.J. Ewart | 8:10 | $7,000 | 41.3 | -1.0 | 6.0% | T43 (-2) |
| Lanto Griffin | 9:04 | $6,500 | 41.3 | -0.3 | 8.8% | T67 (-1) |
| Mark Hubbard | 7:19 | $6,600 | 41.2 | -0.5 | 8.0% | T67 (-1) |
| Pontus Nyholm | 9:34 | $6,800 | 41.0 | -1.0 | 6.0% | T26 (-3) |
| Chandler Blanchet | 10:40 | $6,700 | 40.8 | -1.1 | 5.6% | T14 (-4) |
| Fabian Gomez | 8:55 | $6,200 | 40.6 | -0.5 | 8.0% | |
| Trace Crowe | 7:00 | $7,000 | 40.3 | -2.0 | 3% | T14 (-4) |
| Chandler Phillips | 12:25 | $7,200 | 40.1 | -2.5 | 3% | T10 (-5) |
| Kevin Streelman | 11:25 | $6,600 | 40.1 | -1.6 | 3.6% | T14 (-4) |
| John VanDerLaan | 8:00 | $6,500 | 39.9 | -1.6 | 3.6% | T14 (-4) |
| Hank Lebioda | 9:04 | $6,400 | 39.9 | -1.5 | 4.0% | T43 (-2) |
| Vince Whaley | 10:10 | $6,700 | 39.7 | -2.1 | 3% | T14 (-4) |
| Jimmy Stanger | 7:40 | $6,500 | 39.7 | -1.9 | 3% | T43 (-2) |
| Troy Merritt | 12:15 | $6,700 | 39.4 | -2.5 | 3% | T10 (-5) |
| Jeffrey Kang | 9:15 | $6,400 | 38.8 | -2.6 | 3% | T14 (-4) |
| Will Gordon | 8:55 | $6,700 | 38.6 | -3.3 | 3% | T26 (-3) |
| Camilo Villegas | 8:19 | $6,300 | 38.4 | -2.9 | 3% | T43 (-2) |
| Muzzy Donohue | 10:19 | $6,000 | 24.2 | -16.6 | 3% | T119 (+2) |
💵 Balanced Cash Build — $50,000
Kitayama $10,200 · McNealy $9,600 · Sam Stevens $8,400 · Casey Jarvis $7,800 · Michael Kim $7,500 · Davis Chatfield $6,500
Two studs + the value core, no Scheffler tax. High floor, every golfer projected 41+. My safest single-entry build.
🎯 Scheffler Anchor — $50,000
Scheffler $14,400 · Michael Kim $7,500 · Casey Jarvis $7,800 · John Parry $7,000 · Chris Kirk $6,800 · Davis Chatfield $6,500
The best golfer alive + five value plays. If Scheffler goes low (and he's in contention), this ceiling is enormous. Pay up top, save everywhere else.
🐕 GPP Leverage — $49,900
McNealy $9,600 · Koivun $9,500 · Corey Conners $8,700 · Michael Kim $7,500 · Casey Jarvis $7,800 · Chris Kirk $6,800
The tournament build: McNealy + Conners are the bounce-backs the field fades, Koivun is the contender I trust, and the value core makes it fit. Low-owned where it counts.