🔒 COURTEDGE PREMIUM
The Sunday matinee board is for members
Behind the paywall: my 5 captains with exposures & why, the top 6 flex plays, the fades (including the seat-by-seat Brandon Lowe verdict), the double-arms construction and the contest game theory. Every pick graded & published, win or lose.
🧠 The game read
Skenes vs Gasser at PNC in a Sunday matinee — both lineups are confirmed and both sides run out their regulars. Our sim: 8.39 total, 4.20 MIL / 4.20 PIT. Dead even. That evenness matters more than the total: when neither side projects a blowup, the winning showdown scripts are (a) an arms duel where both starters pile up Ks, or (b) one starter cracks in a single inning while the other cruises. Both scripts start with at least one pitcher in your build — the double-arms structure is live today, and the 3|3 bat split gets real weight because both sides project essentially identical run totals.
The whole slate in one sentence: everyone knows Skenes is the play, so the edge isn't whether to roster him — it's which seat you put him in and who you surround him with.
👑 My 5 captains — with exposures & why
| # | Captain | CPT $ | CPT own% | My exp% |
|---|
| 1 | Paul Skenes · MY #1 · THE TOLL | $17,400 | 31.9% | 35% |
| 2 | Robert Gasser · THE LEVERAGE ARM | $15,600 | 9.2% | 25% |
| 3 | Jackson Chourio · THE SUB-5% POWER SEAT | $12,300 | 4.4% | 15% |
| 4 | Brandon Lowe · THE 2.7% HAMMER | $13,800 | 2.7% | 12% |
| 5 | Jake Mangum · THE $9.6K ENABLER | $9,600 | 4.7% | 13% |
- 1) Skenes ($17,400 CPT · 31.9% · 35% exposure). Highest ceiling in the game by six full points — 32.6 flex p95, ~49 in the captain seat — in a matinee arms park. A third of the field captains him and they're right. At 8.4 total runs the most likely winning lineup starts Skenes CPT; being different somewhere this correct is how you lose. Pay the toll.
- 2) Gasser ($15,600 CPT · 9.2% · 25%). The Castillo structure from our graded SEA@TB winner: the field flexes him at 37% but captains him at 9.2% — a 4x leverage gap on a 26.3 p95 arm (~39.5 CPT) facing a PIT lineup that projects its 4.2 runs on sequencing, not slug. Gasser CPT + Skenes FLEX is the double-arms build that wins the low-scoring script everyone predicts and nobody rosters.
- 3) Chourio ($12,300 CPT · 4.4% · 15%). The sub-5% bat seat, elevated on purpose (the Caminero rule — the winning low-owned power seats get the full case, not a footnote). MIL's best power/speed bat hits second, guaranteed a first-inning look at Skenes before he settles. p99 of 31 flex (~46 CPT). If anyone runs into two today, it's him — and you'd own the seat nearly alone.
- 4) Lowe ($13,800 CPT · 2.7% · 12%). PIT's power bat in the 2-hole at effectively zero captain ownership with the same 22/30 p95/p99 as Chourio. Gasser is a rookie lefty seeing this lineup for the third time — if the Gasser-implodes branch hits, Lowe CPT wins the tournament and nobody has it.
- 5) Mangum ($9,600 CPT · 4.7% · 13%). The structural key: the only real captain that fits BOTH arms plus three legitimate bats under the cap. Leadoff speed with a 21 p95 — singles-and-steals is exactly how a 4.2-run team scores. Rank captains by ceiling/Win%, not average sim ROI — single-bullet players especially (last week's graded winner simmed negative ROI pre-lock).
🎯 My top 6 FLEX — with why
| # | Player | Flex $ | Flex own% | p95 | Why |
|---|
| 1 | Paul Skenes (PIT SP) | $11,600 | 48.5% | 32.6 | When not captaining him, you still want him — 48% own is the toll in flex form. The only true fade-proof piece. |
| 2 | Robert Gasser (MIL SP) | $10,400 | 37.1% | 26.3 | Second-highest ceiling on the board. Skenes+Gasser double-flex under a bat captain (Chourio/Lowe/Mangum) is a winning frame. |
| 3 | Jackson Chourio (MIL OF) | $8,200 | 22.7% | 22.0 | Best bat ceiling in the game; order 2 gets 4-5 PAs even on a fast Skenes day. |
| 4 | Jake Mangum (PIT OF) | $6,400 | 26.2% | 21.0 | Leadoff + stolen-base equity at a price that makes the stud builds legal. The field is right about him — don't overthink it. |
| 5 | Christian Yelich (MIL OF) | $7,400 | 23.1% | 22.0 | Leadoff for the (marginally) hotter lineup; same 22 ceiling as Chourio at $800 off. |
| 6 | Tyler Callihan (PIT 2B/OF) | $4,800 | 24.7% | 19.0 | The value that finishes builds: 19 p95 at near-min price, hitting 7th with lefty pull-side juice against a rookie lefty's third look. Don't blanket-pass cheap confirmed bats — the Cole Young lesson. |
Next men up: William Contreras ($6,800 · 21.3% · 20 p95) if you want the catcher premium, Esmerlyn Valdez ($6,200 · 22.3% · 20 p95) as the PIT ceiling-per-dollar bat, Sal Frelick ($4,400 · 26.0% · 19 p95) as the pure salary saver.
✂️ The fades
- Ryan O'Hearn ($8,400 flex · 17.4%) — price fade. Worst ceiling-per-dollar among bats over $8K (20 p95). Valdez matches his ceiling from the same lineup for $2,200 less.
- Bryan Reynolds ($8,800 flex · 15.6%) — value fade, not a leverage fade: the entire PIT 4-9 runs 18-20 p95 at roughly half his salary.
- Brandon Lowe the FLEX ($9,200 · 17.2%) — same player, opposite verdicts by seat: at $9,200 flex he's a trim (bats at $6K carry his ceiling); at 2.7% in the captain seat he's a smash. That asymmetry IS showdown.
🏗️ Construction rules
- At least one starter in every build. Zero-pitcher lineups need a 10+ run game; our sim gives this one 8.4 with even splits — wrong slate for it.
- 3|3 gets real weight — both sides project 4.2. Don't force 4-2 toward PIT just because Skenes is the story.
- Double-arms is the leverage frame: Skenes + Gasser together, bat captain in front (Mangum/Chourio/Lowe). The field builds "Skenes CPT + 5 bats" — you'll be structurally different while holding the two highest-ceiling pieces.
- Salary posture: with Callihan/Frelick live at the bottom, don't leave more than ~$1,500 on the table. No forced punts — this slate has real mid-priced bats.
🎩 Game theory — how to win the matinee
Single-entry / 3-max: Skenes CPT + Gasser flex + Chourio + Mangum + Callihan + one of Yelich/Contreras. Chalk seat, leverage structure — you're with the field on the captain and alone on the shape.
Large-field GPP: this is where the 9.2% Gasser captain and the 2.7–4.4% bat captains live. Allocate captains roughly like my exposure column above, keep every build's combined ownership under ~140%, and remember the rule that keeps repeating in our graded winners: sort by Win%/ceiling, never average ROI — the right tail pays for everything.
Every pick graded & published, win or lose. Build and sim it in the Showdown Builder + Sim — MIL@PIT is loaded with captains & fades baked in.