Both cards are posted. An 8.5 total with the Angels favored at an implied 5.0 — and the field has responded by jamming 61% into the worse pitcher and leaving the entire Giants lineup untouched. Rafael Devers has the best projection and the best ceiling on the slate at 14.3% owned. This is the cleanest ownership misprice of the day.
✅ LINEUP STATUS — both cards confirmed
- Not in the Giants lineup: Jung Hoo Lee ($6,600), Matt Chapman ($4,000), Harrison Bader ($3,600), Jesus Rodriguez ($5,800), Daniel Susac ($4,800). Chapman and Lee sitting is what pushes Casey Schmitt to 5th and Grant McCray into the 9-hole.
- Not in the Angels lineup: Anthony Rendon, Chris Taylor ($4,200), Oswald Peraza ($5,400), Wade Meckler ($5,000), Josh Lowe ($4,600), Trey Mancini, Yoan Moncada ($3,800).
- Every player in every build below is in a posted order. Both nine-man cards are complete — no open slots on this slate.
Game Theory — 61% On The Wrong Arm
DraftKings Showdown gives you one captain at 1.5x points and 1.5x salary plus five FLEX. On a two-team slate the captain slot decides the tournament, and the field's default is to anchor it to a starting pitcher. Here they've done that — and picked the wrong one by a wide margin.
Carson Whisenhunt is 61.0% owned. Look at what that ownership is buying:
| Soriano (LAA) | Whisenhunt (SF) |
|---|
| Projection | 18.71 | 12.03 |
| Ceiling | 19.46 | 15.66 |
| Floor | 4.00 | 4.88 |
| Safety score | 45 | 37 |
| Opposing implied total | 3.5 | 5.0 |
| Salary | $11,600 | $10,800 |
| Ownership | 47.2% | 61.0% |
Whisenhunt wins exactly one row — floor, by 0.88 points — and loses everything else, including the matchup, which is the input that actually drives pitcher scoring. He's facing a 5.0-implied offense; Soriano is facing a 3.5. Being 61% on the arm with six fewer projected points in the harder spot is the single largest structural error on this slate.
The honest counter-argument. Whisenhunt's floor edge is real and his salary is $800 cheaper, which matters on a slate where the good bats are expensive. If you believe the Angels' 5.0 implied is inflated — they're only a -114 favorite, so the market isn't confident either — a Whisenhunt start that goes six innings is perfectly live. The argument isn't that he's a bad player. It's that 61% ownership prices in an outcome his projection doesn't support, so rostering him buys you nothing you can't get cheaper elsewhere.
The Giants lineup is the real edge
San Francisco is implied for 3.5 runs, so the room has skipped the entire order. That's the mistake, because the three biggest hitter ceilings on this slate are all Giants:
- Rafael Devers — $8,000, 9.66 proj, 20.96 ceiling, 14.3% owned, leverage 22. He has the highest projection of any hitter on the slate and the highest ceiling of any hitter on the slate, and he's owned at less than a third of Jorge Soler's rate. There is no version of this board where that's correct.
- Heliot Ramos — $8,200, 7.21 proj, 17.79 ceiling, 5.3% owned, leverage score 50. Fifty is the highest leverage figure anywhere in this pull, on either team. Second-best hitter ceiling in the game, batting second, owned by one in twenty lineups.
- Casey Schmitt — $8,800, 7.86 proj, 15.15 ceiling, 6.7% owned, leverage 40. Batting fifth with Chapman out. The second-highest leverage score on the slate.
- Willy Adames — $7,200, 6.96 proj, 14.08 ceiling, 7.4% owned, leverage 27 and Luis Arraez — $8,400, 8.12 proj, 14.12 ceiling, 9.8% owned, leverage 26 round out a lineup where five of nine hitters are under 15% owned.
Add it up: you can roster the best bat, the best ceiling, and the two highest leverage scores in the game and still be under a quarter of the ownership the field is spending on a 5.24-projection catcher.
The Angels chalk that isn't worth it
Los Angeles is the better offense and deserves exposure — but the specific names the field has chosen are indefensible:
- Jorge Soler — 49.9% owned, 7.86 ceiling, leverage score 3. Half the field is rostering a bat whose ceiling is lower than Heliot Ramos's projection-adjusted upside and barely above his own median. The worst ownership-to-upside combination on the slate.
- Logan O'Hoppe — 42.2% owned, 5.77 ceiling, leverage score 2. The lowest ceiling of any starter in the game at the fourth-highest ownership. If you need a cheap catcher, Drew Cavanaugh ($4,200, 6.78 ceiling, 30.3%) is cheaper with more upside.
- Vaughn Grissom (39.1%) and Jose Siri (30.8%) are the fair chalk — Grissom is 1.39 points per $1,000 and Siri 1.54, both genuinely efficient. Keep them; they're how the salary works.
The quiet Angel: Denzer Guzman ($6,200, 6.08 proj, 8.45 ceiling) is 6.3% owned with a leverage score of 20 — the only Angels bat the field has ignored. Low ceiling, so he's a FLEX filler rather than a captain, but he's the cheapest way to take LAA exposure off the crowd.
Top Captains — Ranked
1. Jose Soriano — LAA SP RHP
$11,600 · CPT $17,400 · proj 18.71 · ceiling 19.46 · floor 4.00 · 47.2% owned — the correct pitcher captain and the highest-projection play on the board by nearly nine points. He faces a Giants offense implied for 3.5 with the best safety score on the slate (45). At 1.5x he's roughly 28 points of median production, which nothing else here approaches. He is chalk at 47.2%, but he's chalk that's 13.8 points less owned than the pitcher he should be more owned than. Correct in cash, correct in single-entry, and defensible in tournaments.
The caveat worth naming: his ceiling (19.46) is barely above his projection, meaning this is a floor play, not an upside play. He is very unlikely to win you a large-field GPP by himself — he keeps you alive while your bats do the work.
2. Rafael Devers — SF 1B L
$8,000 · CPT $12,000 · proj 9.66 · ceiling 20.96 · 14.3% owned — the best bat-captain on the slate and, honestly, the play I'd build around in tournaments. Highest hitter projection and highest hitter ceiling in the game, batting cleanup, at a captain tag of only $12,000 that leaves room to stack four more real bats behind him. At 1.5x his ceiling is roughly 31 points — more than Soriano's ceiling — and he's owned at less than a third of Jorge Soler's rate. If San Francisco beats its 3.5 implied, captaining Devers is how you win outright.
3. Casey Schmitt — SF 3B R
$8,800 · CPT $13,200 · proj 7.86 · ceiling 15.15 · 6.7% owned · leverage 40 — the deep-leverage captain. Batting fifth with Matt Chapman out, a 15.2 ceiling, and a leverage score second only to Ramos on the entire board. He's the more expensive of the two big Giants leverage bats, which is why he's the captain and Ramos is the FLEX in most builds. Pure tournament separation — at 6.7% ownership you are effectively alone if this hits.
4. Heliot Ramos — SF OF R
$8,200 · CPT $12,300 · proj 7.21 · ceiling 17.79 · 5.3% owned · leverage 50 — the single most leveraged player in this data pull. A 50 leverage score is not a number you see often; it means the model considers his ownership dramatically detached from his upside. Second-best hitter ceiling on the slate, batting second, owned by one lineup in twenty. His projection (7.21) is modest, so this is a swing rather than a solid play — but it's the swing with the most room on the board.
5. Zach Neto — LAA SS R
$9,200 · CPT $13,800 · proj 9.82 · ceiling 15.68 · 37.6% owned — the best Angels bat and the leadoff man in the 5.0-implied offense. Second-highest hitter projection on the slate behind only Devers. At 37.6% he's genuine chalk, so captaining him is more of a cash/floor decision than a leverage one, but on the favorite's side with a real projection he's a defensible anchor.
6. Mike Trout — LAA OF R
$9,800 · CPT $14,700 · proj 9.53 · ceiling 15.72 · 35.1% owned — the name everyone knows, priced accordingly. A 9.53 projection with the best floor of any Angels bat (3.01) batting second in the better offense. He's fine; he's just the most expensive way to buy 9.5 projected points on a slate where Devers gives you 9.66 for $1,800 less and half the ownership. Captain him in cash-style builds where the floor matters.
7. Willy Adames — SF SS R
$7,200 · CPT $10,800 · proj 6.96 · ceiling 14.08 · 7.4% owned · leverage 27 — the cheapest of the four big Giants leverage bats and the one that unlocks the most salary at captain. A $10,800 captain tag is the lowest of any player worth captaining here, which means you can hold Devers, Ramos and Schmitt behind him. Third-tier upside, first-tier construction value.
8. Carson Whisenhunt — SF SP LHP
$10,800 · CPT $16,200 · proj 12.03 · ceiling 15.66 · floor 4.88 · 61.0% owned — listed eighth because the field is 61% on him. Six fewer projected points than Soriano, a lower ceiling, and the harder matchup against a 5.0-implied offense. His floor is the best on the slate and that's not nothing — but at 61% ownership, captaining him is the definition of tying the field. Roster him in a small slice so a shutout doesn't kill you; do not make him your primary captain.
Top FLEX Plays
| Player | Pos · Team | Salary | Proj | Ceil | Own% | Why FLEX |
|---|
| Rafael Devers L | 1B · SF | $8,000 | 9.7 | 21.0 | 14.3 | Best projection and best ceiling of any bat on the slate at 14.3%. Near-mandatory whenever he isn't your captain. |
| Jose Soriano RHP | SP · LAA | $11,600 | 18.7 | 19.5 | 47.2 | Highest projection on the board. If a bat is your captain, he's the FLEX that carries the floor. |
| Heliot Ramos R | OF · SF | $8,200 | 7.2 | 17.8 | 5.3 | Leverage score 50 — highest in the pull. Second-best hitter ceiling at 5.3% owned. |
| Casey Schmitt R | 3B · SF | $8,800 | 7.9 | 15.2 | 6.7 | Leverage 40, batting 5th with Chapman out. The other half of the Giants leverage core. |
| Vaughn Grissom R | 2B/3B · LAA | $6,000 | 8.3 | 14.0 | 39.1 | 1.39 pts per $1,000 batting third in the 5.0-implied offense. Chalk, but earned — it's how the salary works. |
| Zach Neto R | SS · LAA | $9,200 | 9.8 | 15.7 | 37.6 | Second-best hitter projection, leadoff on the favorite side. Core LAA piece. |
| Jose Siri R | OF · LAA | $5,200 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 30.8 | 1.54 pts per $1,000 — second-best rate on the slate. Low ceiling (9.5); a salary tool, not a difference-maker. |
| Grant McCray L | OF · SF | $3,400 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 21.9 | 1.78 pts per $1,000 — best rate on the slate. The cheapest confirmed bat and the piece that makes stud-heavy builds fit. |
| Luis Arraez L | 2B · SF | $8,400 | 8.1 | 14.1 | 9.8 | Leadoff for the Giants with the best contact profile in the game, at under 10% owned. Leverage 26. |
| Willy Adames R | SS · SF | $7,200 | 7.0 | 14.1 | 7.4 | 14.1 ceiling at 7.4% owned. The cheap way to add a fourth low-owned Giant. |
| Jo Adell R | OF · LAA | $7,400 | 8.3 | 15.6 | 33.7 | Best power ceiling among the Angels bats (15.6). Moderate chalk with real upside. |
| Denzer Guzman R | 3B · LAA | $6,200 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 6.3 | The only low-owned Angel (6.3%, leverage 20). Modest ceiling — use for LAA exposure off the crowd. |
🚫 The two FLEX spots to fade
Jorge Soler ($6,800, 49.9% owned, 7.86 ceiling, leverage 3) and Logan O'Hoppe ($4,400, 42.2% owned, 5.77 ceiling, leverage 2). These are the two lowest ceilings among the Angels regulars at the first- and fourth-highest ownership on the slate. Half the field is paying full chalk price for the least upside available. If you want that salary range on the Angels side, Denzer Guzman ($6,200, 8.45 ceiling, 6.3%) replaces Soler at similar price with better upside and a seventh of the ownership; Drew Cavanaugh ($4,200, 6.78 ceiling, 30.3%) replaces O'Hoppe cheaper with a higher ceiling.
My Favorite Stacks & Why
Showdown is a correlation game — captain and FLEX should pull from the same run-scoring outcome. Three combos off confirmed cards.
⚙️ Soriano captain with a Giants-leverage FLEX core (my A-build)
CPT Jose Soriano + FLEX Heliot Ramos, Rafael Devers, Bryce Eldridge, Vaughn Grissom, Grant McCray. This is the shape I like most on this slate, and it's deliberately not purely correlated. Soriano at captain gives you the highest median on the board while suppressing the Giants; the Devers/Ramos pairing is your hedge — if San Francisco does get to him, the two bats most likely to do the damage are already in your lineup at a combined 19.6% ownership. Grissom and McCray make the salary work. Highest projection of any build here (67.03) with a 103.1 ceiling.
🌉 The full Giants swing — Devers captain
CPT Rafael Devers + FLEX Casey Schmitt, Luis Arraez, Heliot Ramos, Bryce Eldridge, Drew Gilbert. Six San Francisco bats, both arms faded, total ownership across all six roster spots of 96 points — the lowest-owned build available. You're betting the 3.5-implied underdog beats its number, which is the least likely single outcome on the slate and also the one that pays the most. Devers, Schmitt, Ramos and Arraez are a combined 36.1% owned. If the Giants put up five, this is close to alone.
💥 Max-ceiling game stack — Devers captain, both sides
CPT Rafael Devers + FLEX Zach Neto, Heliot Ramos, Jo Adell, Willy Adames, Vaughn Grissom. The highest ceiling on the board (108.5). Captain the slate's best bat, take the two Angels with real power (Neto, Adell) plus Grissom's efficiency, and pair Ramos and Adames as the low-owned Giants. This is the build for an 8.5 total that goes over — it captures both offenses and fades both pitchers, which is the outcome the 61%-Whisenhunt field cannot survive.
Who To Get Most Exposure To
🥇 Rafael Devers — highest overall exposure
Best hitter projection (9.66) and best hitter ceiling (20.96) on the slate, at 14.3% owned. There is no argument against maximum exposure here — captain in tournaments, FLEX everywhere else. Target ~60%. He is the reason this slate is beatable.
🥈 Jose Soriano — highest floor exposure
The highest projection on the board (18.71) in the better matchup, and 13.8 points less owned than the inferior arm. Captain in cash and single-entry, FLEX in the bat-captain builds. Target ~55%. The only builds without him are the pure Giants swings.
🥉 Heliot Ramos — highest leverage exposure
Leverage score 50, the highest figure anywhere in this pull, on a 17.79 ceiling at 5.3% ownership. Concentrated in tournament builds. Target ~45% in GPPs. His projection is modest, so he's a swing — but he's the swing with the most room on the slate.
➕ Casey Schmitt — secondary leverage
Leverage 40, batting fifth with Chapman out, 6.7% owned. The other half of the Giants separation play. Target ~35% in GPPs, captain in the deepest builds.
How To Build A Winning Lineup — Single-Entry vs Multi-Entry
🎯 Single-Entry — floor first, leverage second
The one bullet: CPT Soriano + the Devers/Ramos hedge
CPT Jose Soriano · FLEX Heliot Ramos, Rafael Devers, Bryce Eldridge, Vaughn Grissom, Grant McCray. In single-entry you need to survive the median outcome and still hold a ceiling. Soriano is the highest-median play on the slate in the better matchup, and unlike most chalk captains he's actually underowned relative to the worse arm. The Devers/Ramos pair is the built-in hedge: the exact two bats most likely to beat him are already in your lineup, at a combined 19.6% ownership. That's the rare construction where your floor play and your leverage play don't fight each other.
Why not captain Whisenhunt? Because at 61% ownership you're paying the highest price on the board for the lower projection in the harder matchup. Even when he hits, you've tied roughly three-fifths of the field. In single-entry, a captain you can defend on merit beats a captain you share with everyone.
🎰 Multi-Entry (20-Max / 150-Max) — force the Giants
Spread the captain slot and make yourself run the low-owned side in a real share. A workable allocation: Soriano ~30% (the defensible floor anchor), Devers ~25% (the best bat, still cheap in ownership), Schmitt ~15% (the forced leverage captain), Ramos ~12% (the maximum-leverage swing), Neto ~10% (the Angels-side bat captain), and Whisenhunt ~8% purely as insurance against a shutout start. No single captain above ~30%.
Safe core vs. leverage darts
Safe core (majority of builds): Jose Soriano, Rafael Devers, and Vaughn Grissom ($6,000, 1.39 pts/$1k) or Grant McCray ($3,400, 1.78 pts/$1k) as the salary glue. These hold up in the median and let you afford the studs.
Leverage darts (concentrated in GPPs): Heliot Ramos (5.3%, leverage 50), Casey Schmitt (6.7%, leverage 40), Willy Adames (7.4%, leverage 27), Luis Arraez (9.8%, leverage 26). Four bats from the same lineup, all under 10% owned, three with 14+ ceilings. Stacking three or four of them is the entire tournament thesis.
Actively underweight: Jorge Soler (49.9% on a 7.86 ceiling) and Logan O'Hoppe (42.2% on a 5.77 ceiling). Those two roster spots are where the field is spending ownership for the least upside available.
Portfolio shape in one line: roughly half your entries anchor Soriano with a Giants-leverage FLEX core, a third are the full San Francisco swing captained by Devers or Schmitt, and a thin slice plays the Whisenhunt chalk as insurance. Stay under the field on Soler and O'Hoppe, and make sure Ramos and Schmitt appear in a real share of your builds — they're the only two names that can separate you outright.
Cap-Legal Sample Lineups
DraftKings Showdown: 1 CPT (1.5x salary, 1.5x points) + 5 FLEX. Cap $50,000; every build sits in a $48,700–$50,000 window. CPT salary = round(base × 1.5); CPT points = base projection × 1.5. Every player is in a confirmed lineup.
🛡️ Cash / Balanced — Soriano captain with the Giants hedge
#1 — Soriano CPT, Devers/Ramos hedge ($50,000 · proj 67.03 · ceiling 103.1 · sum own 158)
- CPT: Jose Soriano $17,400 · FLEX: Rafael Devers $8,000 · Heliot Ramos $8,200 · Bryce Eldridge $7,000 · Vaughn Grissom $6,000 · Grant McCray $3,400
The highest-projection build on the slate and the one I'd fire in single-entry. Captain the better arm at 13.8 points less ownership than the field's choice, then hold the two Giants most likely to beat him as your hedge. Devers and Ramos are a combined 19.6% owned. McCray at $3,400 (best value rate on the slate) is what makes it fit.
💎 GPP Contrarian — the full San Francisco swing
#2 — Devers CPT, six Giants ($50,000 · proj 51.99 · ceiling 103.3 · sum own 96)
- CPT: Rafael Devers $12,000 · FLEX: Casey Schmitt $8,800 · Luis Arraez $8,400 · Heliot Ramos $8,200 · Bryce Eldridge $7,000 · Drew Gilbert $5,600
Lowest total ownership of any build on the board (96 points across six roster spots). Six Giants, both arms faded — the play if San Francisco beats its 3.5 implied. Devers, Schmitt, Ramos and Arraez combine for 36.1% ownership, less than Jorge Soler alone. Lowest projection here by design; you're buying the tail, and the tail is enormous.
💥 GPP Max-Ceiling — both sides of the game
#3 — Devers CPT, game stack ($50,000 · proj 55.09 · ceiling 108.5 · sum own 137)
- CPT: Rafael Devers $12,000 · FLEX: Zach Neto $9,200 · Jo Adell $7,400 · Willy Adames $7,200 · Vaughn Grissom $6,000 · Heliot Ramos $8,200
Highest ceiling on the board (108.5). Captain the slate's best bat, take the two Angels with real power plus Grissom's efficiency, and pair Ramos and Adames as the ignored Giants. This is the shootout build — it fades both pitchers entirely, which is exactly the outcome a field that's 61% on Whisenhunt cannot absorb.
🎲 GPP Deep-Leverage — Schmitt captain
#4 — Schmitt CPT, leverage core ($50,000 · proj 52.23 · ceiling 105.1 · sum own 107)
- CPT: Casey Schmitt $13,200 · FLEX: Rafael Devers $8,000 · Heliot Ramos $8,200 · Jo Adell $7,400 · Willy Adames $7,200 · Vaughn Grissom $6,000
The deepest swing that still holds a 105 ceiling. Captaining a 6.7%-owned bat with a leverage score of 40 puts you in rare air, and you still hold Devers and Ramos behind him. Three of the four highest leverage scores on the slate in one lineup. Small share of entries; enormous payoff if the Giants score.
Salary math, verified: #1 = $50,000 · #2 = $50,000 · #3 = $50,000 · #4 = $50,000. All four exactly at the cap, all six roster spots filled with confirmed-lineup players, CPT salary computed as round(base × 1.5) and CPT points as base × 1.5.
Bottom Line
The field made two errors on this slate and they compound. It put 61% into Carson Whisenhunt — the arm with six fewer projected points, a lower ceiling, and the harder matchup against a 5.0-implied offense — while leaving Jose Soriano at 47.2%. And it abandoned the entire San Francisco lineup because they're the 3.5-implied underdog, which is how Rafael Devers ends up with the best projection and the best ceiling of any bat in the game at 14.3% owned, and how Heliot Ramos carries a leverage score of 50 at 5.3%. Captain Soriano when you want the floor, Devers when you want to win, and get off Jorge Soler and Logan O'Hoppe — a combined 92% of the field is buying the two lowest ceilings on the board.
One-line takeaway: The 61%-owned pitcher is the worse pitcher, and nobody is on the Giants — captain Soriano for floor or Devers for the win, jam Heliot Ramos (5.3%, leverage 50) and Casey Schmitt (6.7%, leverage 40) in every tournament build, and fade the 49.9% Soler / 42.2% O'Hoppe chalk that's buying the two lowest ceilings in the game.