Both cards are posted. An 8.5 total with the Angels favored at an implied 5.0 — and the field has responded by jamming 61% into the worse pitcher and leaving the entire Giants lineup untouched. Rafael Devers has the best projection and the best ceiling on the slate at 14.3% owned. This is the cleanest ownership misprice of the day.
Angels @ Giants, Sunday 4:05 PM ET, DraftKings single-game. Vegas has an 8.5 total with Los Angeles a -114 favorite (implied 5.0) and San Francisco at 3.5. That's a modest run environment — this isn't the 9.0-plus track meet we had earlier today — which normally pushes a showdown toward the arms. The problem is that the field picked the wrong one.
The 61% trap. Carson Whisenhunt is 61.0% owned, the heaviest concentration on any showdown slate today. He projects 12.03 with a 15.66 ceiling — and he's facing the Angels offense implied for 5.0 runs. Across the diamond, Jose Soriano projects 18.71 against a Giants offense implied for 3.5, with a materially better safety score (45 vs 37), and he's 47.2% owned. Higher projection, better matchup, 14 points less ownership. The field has this exactly backwards.
And nobody is on the Giants. Because San Francisco is the 3.5-implied underdog, the room has written the whole lineup off — yet that lineup contains the three biggest hitter ceilings in the game. Rafael Devers (20.96 ceiling, 14.3% owned) has the highest projection and the highest ceiling of any bat on the board. Heliot Ramos (17.79 ceiling) is 5.3% owned with a leverage score of 50 — the highest number in this entire data pull. Casey Schmitt is 6.7% with a leverage score of 40.
The two arms — the ownership is upside down:
| # | Los Angeles (implied 5.0) | Sal | Own% | San Francisco (implied 3.5) | Sal | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zach Neto R SS | $9,200 | 37.6 | Luis Arraez L 2B | $8,400 | 9.8 |
| 2 | Mike Trout R OF | $9,800 | 35.1 | Heliot Ramos R OF | $8,200 | 5.3 |
| 3 | Vaughn Grissom R 2B/3B | $6,000 | 39.1 | Bryce Eldridge L 1B | $7,000 | 29.8 |
| 4 | Jorge Soler R OF | $6,800 | 49.9 | Rafael Devers L 1B | $8,000 | 14.3 |
| 5 | Nolan Schanuel L 1B | $6,400 | 22.9 | Casey Schmitt R 3B | $8,800 | 6.7 |
| 6 | Jo Adell R OF | $7,400 | 33.7 | Drew Gilbert L OF | $5,600 | 30.1 |
| 7 | Denzer Guzman R 3B | $6,200 | 6.3 | Willy Adames R SS | $7,200 | 7.4 |
| 8 | Jose Siri R OF | $5,200 | 30.8 | Drew Cavanaugh L C | $4,200 | 30.3 |
| 9 | Logan O'Hoppe R C | $4,400 | 42.2 | Grant McCray L OF | $3,400 | 21.9 |
| Player | Pos · Team | Salary | Proj | Ceiling | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Soriano RHP | SP · LAA | $11,600 | 18.7 | 19.5 | 47.2 |
| Carson Whisenhunt LHP | SP · SF | $10,800 | 12.0 | 15.7 | 61.0 |
| Rafael Devers L | 1B · SF | $8,000 | 9.7 | 21.0 | 14.3 |
| Zach Neto R | SS · LAA | $9,200 | 9.8 | 15.7 | 37.6 |
| Mike Trout R | OF · LAA | $9,800 | 9.5 | 15.7 | 35.1 |
| Vaughn Grissom R | 2B/3B · LAA | $6,000 | 8.3 | 14.0 | 39.1 |
| Jo Adell R | OF · LAA | $7,400 | 8.3 | 15.6 | 33.7 |
| Luis Arraez L | 2B · SF | $8,400 | 8.1 | 14.1 | 9.8 |
| Jose Siri R | OF · LAA | $5,200 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 30.8 |
| Casey Schmitt R | 3B · SF | $8,800 | 7.9 | 15.2 | 6.7 |
| Bryce Eldridge L | 1B · SF | $7,000 | 7.8 | 14.2 | 29.8 |
| Heliot Ramos R | OF · SF | $8,200 | 7.2 | 17.8 | 5.3 |
| Willy Adames R | SS · SF | $7,200 | 7.0 | 14.1 | 7.4 |
| Jorge Soler R | OF · LAA | $6,800 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 49.9 |
| Drew Gilbert L | OF · SF | $5,600 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 30.1 |
| Nolan Schanuel L | 1B · LAA | $6,400 | 6.5 | 11.7 | 22.9 |
| Denzer Guzman R | 3B · LAA | $6,200 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 6.3 |
| Grant McCray L | OF · SF | $3,400 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 21.9 |
| Logan O'Hoppe R | C · LAA | $4,400 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 42.2 |
| Drew Cavanaugh L | C · SF | $4,200 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 30.3 |
The one-line read: the field is 61% on Whisenhunt, the worse arm in the worse matchup, and has left the entire Giants lineup under 15% owned — including Rafael Devers, who owns both the best projection and the best ceiling on the slate at 14.3%, and Heliot Ramos, whose leverage score of 50 is the highest number in this data pull. Captain Soriano for floor, Devers or Schmitt for the tournament.
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