Both cards are posted. Oneil Cruz is out, Alex Bregman is out, and the ownership that mattered this morning has completely reshuffled — the pitcher-captain trap is gone and the field has piled into the cheap Cubs bats instead. A 9.0 total with Pittsburgh implied for 5.3. Here's the rebuilt playbook on confirmed cards.
Cubs @ Pirates, Sunday 1:35 PM ET, DraftKings single-game — and this is the confirmed-lineup rebuild. Vegas still has a 9.0 total with Pittsburgh a -131 favorite (implied 5.3) and Chicago at 3.8, so the run environment thesis holds: this is a bat slate, not a get-under spot. What changed is everything underneath it.
Three lineup facts that move the board. Oneil Cruz is not in the Pirates lineup — the flag we've been carrying all morning is resolved, and it's a scratch. Alex Bregman is out for Chicago ($7,000, resting), which pushes Pedro Ramirez into the 8-hole and Dansby Swanson to 9th. And Spencer Horwitz is out for Pittsburgh, opening first base for Ryan O'Hearn and a $4,000 Jacob Gonzalez in the 7-hole.
The ownership story flipped completely. This morning the field was 64.7% on Jameson Taillon at captain — a genuine trap. That's gone. On confirmed cards the two arms are now dead even (Ashcraft 51.7%, Taillon 51.4%), and the crowd has moved its chalk to the cheap bats: Michael Conforto is 67.5% owned at $5,400, with Jacob Gonzalez at 52.9% and Nico Hoerner at 51.7% right behind him. The leverage moved with it.
The two arms — now dead even in ownership:
With both arms at ~51%, the captain-slot edge no longer comes from picking the right pitcher. It comes from the bats — specifically from being under the field on $5,400 Conforto (67.5%) and $6,200 Hoerner (51.7%) while owning the two hitters with 20+ ceilings that nobody has: Dansby Swanson at 10.2% and Ryan O'Hearn at 10.9%.
| # | Pittsburgh (implied 5.3) | Sal | Own% | Chicago (implied 3.8) | Sal | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Mangum S OF | $6,600 | 44.1 | Pete Crow-Armstrong L OF | $9,800 | 26.7 |
| 2 | Brandon Lowe L 2B | $9,000 | 26.5 | Seiya Suzuki R OF | $8,400 | 13.5 |
| 3 | Bryan Reynolds S OF | $8,800 | 19.2 | Michael Busch L 1B | $7,600 | 44.1 |
| 4 | Esmerlyn Valdez R OF | $7,800 | 22.3 | Ian Happ S OF | $6,800 | 42.3 |
| 5 | Ryan O'Hearn L 1B | $8,200 | 10.9 | Nico Hoerner R 2B | $6,200 | 51.7 |
| 6 | Nick Gonzales R 3B | $7,200 | 15.1 | Michael Conforto L OF | $5,400 | 67.5 |
| 7 | Jacob Gonzalez L 1B/SS | $4,000 | 52.9 | Carson Kelly R C | $6,000 | 13.5 |
| 8 | Catcher — TBD | — | — | Pedro Ramirez S 2B/3B | $5,600 | 23.9 |
| 9 | Tyler Callihan L 1B/OF | $5,200 | 20.1 | Dansby Swanson R SS | $7,400 | 10.2 |
| Player | Pos · Team | Salary | Proj | Ceiling | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft RHP | SP · PIT | $11,800 | 17.1 | 30.1 | 51.7 |
| Jameson Taillon RHP | SP · CHC | $10,400 | 11.8 | 18.8 | 51.4 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong L | OF · CHC | $9,800 | 11.6 | 24.3 | 26.7 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez R | OF · PIT | $7,800 | 10.4 | 20.3 | 22.3 |
| Jake Mangum S | OF · PIT | $6,600 | 9.1 | 16.4 | 44.1 |
| Brandon Lowe L | 2B · PIT | $9,000 | 9.0 | 13.1 | 26.5 |
| Seiya Suzuki R | OF · CHC | $8,400 | 8.9 | 19.3 | 13.5 |
| Bryan Reynolds S | OF · PIT | $8,800 | 8.8 | 13.9 | 19.2 |
| Michael Busch L | 1B · CHC | $7,600 | 8.7 | 14.8 | 44.1 |
| Pedro Ramirez S | 2B/3B · CHC | $5,600 | 8.3 | 14.5 | 23.9 |
| Ryan O'Hearn L | 1B · PIT | $8,200 | 8.3 | 20.1 | 10.9 |
| Jacob Gonzalez L | 1B/SS · PIT | $4,000 | 8.2 | 16.7 | 52.9 |
| Ian Happ S | OF · CHC | $6,800 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 42.3 |
| Dansby Swanson R | SS · CHC | $7,400 | 7.9 | 23.2 | 10.2 |
| Michael Conforto L | OF · CHC | $5,400 | 7.7 | 15.6 | 67.5 |
| Nick Gonzales R | 3B · PIT | $7,200 | 7.5 | 15.9 | 15.1 |
| Nico Hoerner R | 2B · CHC | $6,200 | 6.9 | 10.9 | 51.7 |
| Tyler Callihan L | 1B/OF · PIT | $5,200 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 20.1 |
| Carson Kelly R | C · CHC | $6,000 | 6.4 | 12.5 | 13.5 |
The one-line read on confirmed cards: both arms are ~51% owned so the pitcher captain is no longer where the edge is — the edge is being under 67.5%-owned Conforto and 51.7%-owned Hoerner while owning the two 20+ ceilings the field forgot, Dansby Swanson (10.2%) and Ryan O'Hearn (10.9%). Cruz and Bregman are out; every build below is confirmed-lineup only.
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