A 9.8-run total — the highest single-game number of the day — and the field is still captaining the pitcher. That inversion is the entire slate. Here's exactly how to attack it.
⚡ The game script
Dodger Stadium, LAD implied for nearly six runs against Mitch Bratt — the single worst pitcher spot on today's board — while Sheehan draws an ARI side implied for 4.1. Both offenses clear the 4-run bar, which means 3|3 builds carry real weight tonight and the "one team scores everything" assumption is the field's second mistake. The first mistake is the captain seat.
In a 9.8-total game the captain multiplier belongs on a bat. The field gave the pitcher 20.5% and left every stud bat at 5%. That's the whole edge — take it.
👑 My 5 captains — with the why
| # | Captain | CPT $ | Proj (CPT) | Own | Verdict |
|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani (LAD 1B/OF, leadoff) | $15,300 | 16.4 | 5.1% | 🚀 The captain |
| 2 | Emmet Sheehan (LAD SP) | $17,100 | 24.0 | 20.5% | ✅ Correct chalk, capped |
| 3 | Ketel Marte (ARI 2B, leadoff) | $12,300 | 13.3 | 5.5% | 🚀 Game-flip |
| 4 | Andy Pages (LAD OF, 2-hole) | $13,200 | 14.0 | 4.8% | 🚀 Correlated ceiling |
| 5 | Max Muncy (LAD 3B) | $13,500 | 12.2 | 2.6% | 💎 HIDDEN BALL |
1) Ohtani CPT — the best bat at a fifth of the pitcher's ownership
The best hitter in the game, leading off for the team implied for 5.7 runs, with a 28-point flex ceiling — and only 5.1% of the field puts him in the seat. If LAD scores what Vegas says they'll score, Ohtani touches the biggest share of it with the most PAs. This is the rare spot where the highest-ceiling play is ALSO the leverage play. He's my largest captain exposure.
2) Sheehan CPT — the chalk you keep, at reduced weight
Highest raw captain projection (24.0), so he can't be a fade. But 20.5% ownership on a pitcher in a near-10-total game is the field paying yesterday's price. If ARI's 4.1 shows up in his innings, the 20.5% is dead together. Hold him around chalk-underweight and be different in the seat, not off the board.
3) Marte CPT — the road flip nobody's holding
ARI's leadoff bat owns the best non-LAD ceiling in the game (p95 26) at 5.5%. The beauty of a 9.8 total: the "wrong" side still projects 4+ runs. When the road half shows up, a Marte captain over four LAD bats is a tournament-winner that almost nobody structurally holds.
4) Pages CPT — buy the same innings cheaper
Hitting directly behind Ohtani at $2.1K less in the seat, 4.8% owned, 25-point ceiling. Every inning that makes Ohtani captains rich makes Pages captains richer per dollar — the salary relief buys you Sheehan or a second stud in flex.
5) Muncy CPT — the 2.6% hidden ball 💎
This is the seat I'd whisper to one person. A 23-ceiling power bat inside the day's biggest implied offense at 2.6% captain — one Muncy swing at 1.5× and you clear 97% of captains instantly. He hits low enough in the order that the field ignores him and high enough in a 5.7-run game to see 4–5 PAs. This is exactly the seat profile that shipped SEA@TB for us — the low-owned power bat with a full case, not a dart.
🎯 My 5 flex — with the why
| # | Flex | $ | Proj | p95 | Own | Verdict |
|---|
| 1 | Emmet Sheehan (LAD SP) | $11,400 | 16.0 | 32 | 54.2% | ✅ The floor piece |
| 2 | Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | $10,200 | 11.0 | 28 | 23.8% | ✅🚀 When not captained |
| 3 | Ketel Marte (ARI) | $8,200 | 8.9 | 26 | 20.3% | 🚀 Best ARI ceiling |
| 4 | Corbin Carroll (ARI) | $8,000 | 8.8 | 25 | 21.6% | 🚀 The 3-hole bridge |
| 5 | Kyle Tucker (LAD) | $7,800 | 8.4 | 23 | 21.5% | ✅ Stud discount |
Why these five: Sheehan flex is the correct home for the pitcher — you keep his 32-point ceiling without spending the multiplier on it (that's the seat's job, and a bat does it better tonight). Ohtani flex is mandatory in every build you don't captain him. Marte and Carroll are the two ARI bats whose ceilings actually pay a 9.8 total — they make your 4|2 builds into real 3|3 leverage without punting projection. Tucker at $7.8K is the cheapest true stud in the 5.7-run offense — sixth in the order costs you nothing at these totals. Bonus seat: Teoscar Hernández ($7,400, 21.8%) is interchangeable with Tucker; rotate them for uniqueness.
💰 Value board — closing the cap
| Player | $ | Proj | Own | The call |
|---|
| Ryan Waldschmidt (ARI OF, 9th) | $3,800 | 4.9 | 17.8% | 🚀 Preferred leverage value — turns the lineup over to Marte |
| Tim Tawa (ARI 1B/OF, 8th) | $4,000 | 5.7 | 22.5% | ✅ Fine in cash-style builds |
| Ildemaro Vargas (ARI, 6th) | $4,600 | 6.5 | 25.0% | ✅ The mid-value chalk, playable |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI OF, 5th) | $5,000 | 6.7 | 23.6% | ✅ Most proj per dollar in the middle |
| Eliezer Alfonzo (LAD C, 9th) | $3,400 | 6.6 | 36.4% | ⚠️ See the fade section |
🚫 Fades — and exactly why
- Mitch Bratt (ARI SP) — full fade, captain and flex. An arm walking into a 5.7-implied Dodgers lineup at 21.8% flex ownership. The worst pitcher spot on today's entire board; the ownership makes it a gift.
- Eliezer Alfonzo — fade at the ownership, not the price. Our trap model has him at 36.4% owned vs ~22% deserved — the biggest chalk trap of the night. He's a fine $3.4K enabler; he is not a 36% play. Cap him hard and buy Waldschmidt's 17.8% instead — same salary relief, half the field.
- Double-bullpen builds — pass. The RPs (Phillips, Vesia) project 2 points with no PA-driven ceiling. In a 9.8-total game every roster spot needs plate appearances or strikeout equity.
🏆 The $10K Extra Inning plan — my full exposure
Contest shape: $10 entry · 1,176 entries · 35-max · 25% cash · $2,000 to first. Top-heavy enough that the captain seat decides everything, small enough that dupes among chalk builds split the top.
- Captain split (35 entries): Ohtani ~25%, Sheehan ~20%, Marte ~15%, Pages ~12%, Muncy ~10%, and the last ~18% spread across Freeman (3.2%), Betts (4.4%) and Carroll (5.5%) captains.
- Build shapes: majority 4|2 LAD-heavy (the implied-runs read), but give real weight to 3|3 — both teams project 4+, and 3|3 is where the Marte/Carroll captains live.
- Every build: Sheehan OR a stud LAD bat as the anchor flex, one ARI ceiling bat minimum, one value seat maximum from the board above, Alfonzo capped near 20% of your entries.
- Σown discipline: live in the 90–140% band (captain-own included). The all-chalk 160%+ builds dupe 5+ ways in a 1,176-entry field.
- Small-stakes versions (Solo Shot / Quarter Jukebox / Dime Time, 20-max): same board, same captain split, push the Muncy and Marte captain weight UP — soft fields overprice the pitcher seat even harder.
Hand-build your candidates in the Showdown Lab — ARI@LAD is pre-loaded with this board — then sim them in candidate mode and enter the builds that top Win%/Ceiling, not average ROI. The winning lineup usually looks "bad" on ROI right up until it ships the slate.
Every pick graded & published, win or lose. Build & sim: MLB Showdown Lab — ARI@LAD loaded.