Every card is posted. Two 10-run games headline the board, and the final ownership pull moved a lot: Braxton Ashcraft went from a quiet value ace to co-most-owned pitcher on the slate, Ranger Suarez fell to 2.1%, and the cheap-bat chalk completely reshuffled. This edition is rebuilt on confirmed lineups and final ownership — every name below is in a posted order.
Twelve games, first pitch 1:35 PM ET on the DraftKings main slate — and this is the confirmed-lineup rebuild. The board shape holds: Vegas has two 10.0-run games (Arizona at Washington, the Athletics at Minnesota) plus a thick cluster of 8.5–9.0 totals underneath, and two get-under duels (SEA@TEX at 7.0, TOR@BOS at 7.5) that hand us the day's best arms. What changed is who the field is on.
What moved on the final pull. The pitcher ownership inverted. Jacob deGrom and Braxton Ashcraft are now the co-most-owned arms at 21.9%, with Gilbert at 20.5% — while Misiorowski, the best play on the slate, sits at just 17.9%. Jameson Taillon collapsed from 16.7% to 6.7%, so he's no longer a fade. And the leverage arm got even better: Ranger Suarez is down to 2.1% on a 17.9 projection. On the bats, two names the field crowded overnight are the new cheap chalk — Austin Martin 17.0% and Royce Lewis 17.5% in Minnesota — while Willson Contreras (10.0 proj) and Ryan O'Hearn (20.0 ceiling) are both sitting at literally 0.0% owned.
Before you touch a single bat, sort the board by where runs and homers actually score. Combining Vegas implied team totals with the CourtEdge Analytics park-and-weather (Dinger) models, the top environments jump off the page:
Best PARK + WEATHER for runs (top of the board):
Best PARK + WEATHER for home runs:
| Player | Pos · Team | Salary | Proj | Ceil | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | SP · MIL | $11,300 | 26.3 | 42.5 | 17.9 |
| Logan Gilbert CHALK | SP · SEA | $10,300 | 21.5 | 32.0 | 20.5 |
| Jacob deGrom CHALK | SP · TEX | $10,100 | 21.3 | 30.0 | 21.9 |
| Ranger Suarez LEV | SP · BOS | $9,700 | 17.9 | 28.8 | 2.1 |
| Braxton Ashcraft CHALK | SP · PIT | $9,000 | 17.1 | 30.1 | 21.9 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong LEV | OF · CHC | $6,100 | 11.6 | 24.3 | 8.1 |
| Jeremy Pena | SS · HOU | $4,500 | 11.3 | 18.9 | 8.5 |
| James Wood LEV | OF · WSH | $6,700 | 11.2 | 22.9 | 6.1 |
| Yordan Alvarez HR | OF · HOU | $6,500 | 10.8 | 23.3 | 17.2 |
| Drake Baldwin HR | C · ATL | $5,600 | 10.5 | 21.9 | 9.2 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez LEV | OF · PIT | $4,100 | 10.4 | 20.2 | 4.3 |
| Byron Buxton HR | OF · MIN | $6,200 | 10.3 | 14.0 | 12.8 |
| CJ Abrams | SS · WSH | $6,200 | 10.2 | 23.1 | 11.7 |
| Shohei Ohtani HR | 1B/OF · LAD | $7,000 | 10.2 | 15.9 | 10.2 |
| Matt Olson LEV | 1B · ATL | $5,500 | 10.0 | 19.6 | 3.6 |
| Willson Contreras LEV | 1B · BOS | $5,400 | 10.0 | 17.7 | 0.0 |
The one-line thesis: two 10-run games (ARI@WSH, ATH@MIN) are the anchor stacks against the two softest arms on the board (Springs 7.6, Mikolas 7.7), Misiorowski is the one pitcher worth paying all the way up for — and he's now less owned than deGrom, Gilbert and Ashcraft. The money is made overweighting the equally-good, quieter plays: Ranger Suarez at 2.1%, Willson Contreras and Ryan O'Hearn at 0.0%, Matt Olson at 3.6%, Ozzie Albies at 0.6%, and Wyatt Langford at 0.6% now that Texas has posted. The full ranking, the chalk-vs-leverage map, and the build strategy are below.
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