Every card is posted. Two 10-run games headline the board, and the final ownership pull moved a lot: Braxton Ashcraft went from a quiet value ace to co-most-owned pitcher on the slate, Ranger Suarez fell to 2.1%, and the cheap-bat chalk completely reshuffled. This edition is rebuilt on confirmed lineups and final ownership — every name below is in a posted order.
Twelve games, first pitch 1:35 PM ET on the DraftKings main slate — and this is the confirmed-lineup rebuild. The board shape holds: Vegas has two 10.0-run games (Arizona at Washington, the Athletics at Minnesota) plus a thick cluster of 8.5–9.0 totals underneath, and two get-under duels (SEA@TEX at 7.0, TOR@BOS at 7.5) that hand us the day's best arms. What changed is who the field is on.
What moved on the final pull. The pitcher ownership inverted. Jacob deGrom and Braxton Ashcraft are now the co-most-owned arms at 21.9%, with Gilbert at 20.5% — while Misiorowski, the best play on the slate, sits at just 17.9%. Jameson Taillon collapsed from 16.7% to 6.7%, so he's no longer a fade. And the leverage arm got even better: Ranger Suarez is down to 2.1% on a 17.9 projection. On the bats, two names the field crowded overnight are the new cheap chalk — Austin Martin 17.0% and Royce Lewis 17.5% in Minnesota — while Willson Contreras (10.0 proj) and Ryan O'Hearn (20.0 ceiling) are both sitting at literally 0.0% owned.
Before you touch a single bat, sort the board by where runs and homers actually score. Combining Vegas implied team totals with the LineStar park-and-weather (Dinger) models, the top environments jump off the page:
Best PARK + WEATHER for runs (top of the board):
Best PARK + WEATHER for home runs:
| Player | Pos · Team | Salary | Proj | Ceil | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | SP · MIL | $11,300 | 26.3 | 42.5 | 17.9 |
| Logan Gilbert CHALK | SP · SEA | $10,300 | 21.5 | 32.0 | 20.5 |
| Jacob deGrom CHALK | SP · TEX | $10,100 | 21.3 | 30.0 | 21.9 |
| Ranger Suarez LEV | SP · BOS | $9,700 | 17.9 | 28.8 | 2.1 |
| Braxton Ashcraft CHALK | SP · PIT | $9,000 | 17.1 | 30.1 | 21.9 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong LEV | OF · CHC | $6,100 | 11.6 | 24.3 | 8.1 |
| Jeremy Pena | SS · HOU | $4,500 | 11.3 | 18.9 | 8.5 |
| James Wood LEV | OF · WSH | $6,700 | 11.2 | 22.9 | 6.1 |
| Yordan Alvarez HR | OF · HOU | $6,500 | 10.8 | 23.3 | 17.2 |
| Drake Baldwin HR | C · ATL | $5,600 | 10.5 | 21.9 | 9.2 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez LEV | OF · PIT | $4,100 | 10.4 | 20.2 | 4.3 |
| Byron Buxton HR | OF · MIN | $6,200 | 10.3 | 14.0 | 12.8 |
| CJ Abrams | SS · WSH | $6,200 | 10.2 | 23.1 | 11.7 |
| Shohei Ohtani HR | 1B/OF · LAD | $7,000 | 10.2 | 15.9 | 10.2 |
| Matt Olson LEV | 1B · ATL | $5,500 | 10.0 | 19.6 | 3.6 |
| Willson Contreras LEV | 1B · BOS | $5,400 | 10.0 | 17.7 | 0.0 |
The one-line thesis: two 10-run games (ARI@WSH, ATH@MIN) are the anchor stacks against the two softest arms on the board (Springs 7.6, Mikolas 7.7), Misiorowski is the one pitcher worth paying all the way up for — and he's now less owned than deGrom, Gilbert and Ashcraft. The money is made overweighting the equally-good, quieter plays: Ranger Suarez at 2.1%, Willson Contreras and Ryan O'Hearn at 0.0%, Matt Olson at 3.6%, Ozzie Albies at 0.6%, and Wyatt Langford at 0.6% now that Texas has posted. The full ranking, the chalk-vs-leverage map, and the build strategy are below.
Behind the paywall: the exact picks, data-backed fades, methodology, hidden gems, and the cap-legal lineups our subscribers are building tonight.
See live picks & track record at courtedge.net/picks
✅ Lineup status: ALL 24 lineups confirmed. Texas has now posted (it was the one projected-only card on the earlier version). The single open slot on the entire board is Pittsburgh's 8-hole catcher, which has no projection in this pull — no PIT catcher appears in any build below.
Scratches that change the earlier version: Josh Bell (MIN, $3,400) is OUT — he is not in the confirmed Twins order, so remove him from any Minnesota build. Oneil Cruz (PIT), Spencer Horwitz (PIT) and Alex Bregman (CHC) are all out. And the Kody Clemens read changed: he's confirmed batting fifth, not third, and is now 3.7% owned rather than 0.0% — still leverage, but no longer a free roll.
Every stack and player call below blends four layers, in this order:
Every name below is cross-referenced to the confirmed lineup file — only players with a posted batting-order slot and a projection above zero are included.
Seven stacks, ranked by the blend of implied total, park/weather and the opposing arm — with the real ownership of each core bat so you can see which are chalk and which are leverage. Every player listed is in a confirmed order.
1. Arizona Diamondbacks @ WSH · 10.0 total · implied 5.8
The cleanest stack on the slate — the only spot that tops the board in all three layers at once. Tied for the highest implied total (5.8), a top run park and top-3 HR park, and one of the two softest arms of the day in Miles Mikolas (WSH, proj 7.7, own 2.0%). Arizona's bats are cheap enough to stack five and still fit Misiorowski. Team projection total: 75.0.
Confirmed order with ownership: 1. Corbin Carroll 15.1% ($5,500) · 2. Geraldo Perdomo 12.5% ($4,300) · 3. Gabriel Moreno 9.9% ($4,600) · 4. Ketel Marte 12.1% ($4,800) · 5. Max Kepler 4.3% ($3,300) · 6. Nolan Arenado 2.9% ($3,400, ceil 14.8) · 7. Adrian Del Castillo 1.4% ($2,900) · 8. Tyler Locklear 3.5% ($2,200) · 9. Tim Tawa 2.6% ($3,100, ceil 15.7).
Chalk vs leverage read: The top four (Carroll/Perdomo/Marte/Moreno) are 10–15% owned — correct chalk. The edge is that the entire back half of this order is under 4.5% in the same 10-run game. In cash take the top; in GPP build the bottom five (Kepler/Arenado/Del Castillo/Locklear/Tawa) and get the identical environment for a quarter of the ownership.
2. Minnesota Twins vs ATH · 10.0 total · implied 5.8
The co-#1 on the arm alone. Jeffrey Springs (ATH) projects a slate-low 7.6 (own 2.2%) in the other 10-run game and a top-3 park for both runs and homers. Team projection total: 74.0. But read the update carefully — this stack got chalkier and one of its pieces disappeared.
Confirmed order with ownership: 1. Austin Martin 17.0% ($2,800) · 2. Byron Buxton 12.8% ($6,200) · 3. Ryan Jeffers 9.3% ($5,500) · 4. Royce Lewis 17.5% ($3,300) · 5. Kody Clemens 3.7% ($5,200, ceil 17.1) · 6. Luke Keaschall 9.2% ($3,200) · 7. Alex Jackson 11.6% ($2,200) · 8. Brooks Lee 0.6% ($4,000) · 9. Ryan Kreidler 2.0% ($3,000).
Chalk vs leverage read: Josh Bell is out of this lineup — drop him from any build. Kody Clemens is confirmed fifth, not third, at 3.7% (he was 0.0% on the earlier pull, so the field found him); he still owns the best ceiling in the stack at 17.1 and is the right leverage piece, just not a free one. The real chalk here is now the min-priced bats: Martin (17.0%), Lewis (17.5%) and Jackson (11.6%). The quietest way in is Brooks Lee at 0.6% ($4,000, 12.6 ceiling) batting eighth.
3. Houston Astros @ CWS · 9.0 total · implied 5.3
The best bats of any stack on the board, into a plus matchup. Erick Fedde (CWS, proj 11.3, own 9.0%) is one of the most homer-prone arms pitching today. Rate Field isn't a top-listed HR park — the only reason this sits behind the two 10-run games — but the arm and lineup quality are elite. Team projection total: 73.1.
Confirmed order with ownership: 1. Jeremy Pena 8.5% ($4,500, proj 11.3 — top hitter projection on the slate) · 2. Yordan Alvarez 17.2% ($6,500) · 3. Isaac Paredes 5.7% ($3,800) · 4. Jose Altuve 2.3% ($4,000) · 5. LaMonte Wade Jr. 8.1% ($2,900) · 6. Yainer Diaz 0.6% ($3,700) · 7. Taylor Trammell 3.7% ($3,000) · 8. Cam Smith 1.7% ($2,800) · 9. Zach Dezenzo 3.8% ($2,100).
Chalk vs leverage read: The slate is on Yordan (17.2%, second-most-owned bat on the board). Everyone else in this elite order is cheap and quiet: Pena is the top-projected hitter at 8.5%, and Altuve (2.3%) / Yainer Diaz (0.6%) / Cam Smith (1.7%) let you build a near-Yordan-free Houston stack that keeps the matchup and dumps the chalk. Best cash stack on the board.
4. Atlanta Braves @ BAL · 8.5 total · implied 5.0
The power play, and the single most under-owned good stack on the slate. Camden Yards is the #1 HR park on the board, and Atlanta faces Shane Baz (BAL, proj 14.5, own 3.0%). Team projection total: 74.9 — third-highest on the slate — with almost no ownership attached to it.
Confirmed order with ownership: 1. Drake Baldwin 9.2% ($5,600, ceil 21.9) · 2. Ozzie Albies 0.6% ($4,600, proj 9.2) · 3. Matt Olson 3.6% ($5,500, proj 10.0, ceil 19.6) · 4. Michael Harris II 3.7% ($5,100, ceil 17.5) · 5. Mauricio Dubon 1.7% ($3,600) · 6. Nick Smith 3.2% ($3,300) · 7. Austin Riley 1.1% ($4,100, ceil 16.3) · 8. Mike Yastrzemski 1.4% ($3,100) · 9. Jim Jarvis 0.6% ($3,200).
Chalk vs leverage read: Baldwin (9.2%) is the only piece the field has found. Everything behind him is remarkable: Matt Olson at 3.6% on a 10.0 projection, Harris at 3.7%, Riley at 1.1% with a 16.3 ceiling, Albies at 0.6%. A full Braves stack is a 74.9-projection offense in the best HR park at single-digit ownership top to bottom. The honest caveat: Baz (14.5) is the toughest arm any top-6 offense faces here, so this is a boom-or-bust HR stack, not a floor play.
5. Miami Marlins vs SD · 8.5 total · implied 5.0
The value stack, and it now carries the highest team projection on the slate (75.3). Walker Buehler (SD, proj 10.7, own 6.6%) has been very hittable, and Miami's order is stuffed with cheap, high-ceiling bats — you can stack five for under $18k and free an ace plus a stud elsewhere.
Confirmed order with ownership: 1. Otto Lopez 4.0% ($4,600, ceil 18.9) · 2. Kyle Stowers 4.3% ($3,900, ceil 17.9) · 3. Heriberto Hernandez 7.5% ($3,400, ceil 18.1) · 4. Xavier Edwards 4.5% ($4,200) · 5. Nick Hicks 0.3% ($4,500) · 6. Griffin Conine 2.3% ($3,100) · 7. Esteury Ruiz 8.4% ($2,900, proj 9.0) · 8. Troy Pauley 3.8% ($2,500) · 9. Joe Mack 0.0% ($2,800, proj 7.9).
Chalk vs leverage read: Nothing in this stack is above 8.5% owned and the whole thing projects better than Arizona's. Joe Mack at 0.0% is a $2,800 catcher projecting 7.9 — the cheapest way to unlock a stud elsewhere. Best second stack on the board.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates vs CHC · 9.0 total · implied 5.3
Still the tournament dark-horse: a 5.3-implied offense that almost nobody is on. They face Jameson Taillon (CHC, proj 11.8), whose ownership collapsed to 6.7%. The one catch is structural — only eight Pirates have posted (the catcher spot is open), so you're stacking from a smaller pool.
Confirmed order with ownership: 1. Jake Mangum 2.6% ($3,600, ceil 16.4) · 2. Brandon Lowe 9.9% ($5,200) · 3. Bryan Reynolds 3.9% ($5,100) · 4. Esmerlyn Valdez 4.3% ($4,100, proj 10.4, ceil 20.2) · 5. Ryan O'Hearn 0.0% ($4,600, ceil 20.0) · 6. Nick Gonzales 1.1% ($4,000, ceil 15.9) · 7. Jacob Gonzalez 7.2% ($2,400, proj 8.2) · 9. Tyler Callihan 1.7% ($2,900).
Chalk vs leverage read: A pure leverage stack — Brandon Lowe (9.9%) is the only real chalk and he has the lowest ceiling of the group (12.9). Ryan O'Hearn is 0.0% owned with a 20.0 ceiling batting fifth; Esmerlyn Valdez is a 10.4 projection at 4.3%. Jacob Gonzalez at $2,400 with an 8.2 projection is the best pure value bat on the slate. If Pittsburgh scores five, essentially no one in the field has them.
7. Detroit Tigers vs KC · 9.0 total · implied 5.3
The softest-arm leverage stack. Luinder Avila (KC, proj 12.6, own 4.2%) is a rookie arm with one of the weakest opponent-adjusted grades on the board. The honest knock: Comerica suppresses runs and doesn't rate on the HR list, so this is an on-base/doubles stack more than a homer stack — a genuine mixed signal between the total and the park. Team projection: 70.9.
Confirmed order with ownership: 1. Colt Keith 1.1% ($3,500) · 2. Kevin McGonigle 13.0% ($4,900) · 3. Gleyber Torres 6.8% ($4,400) · 4. Riley Greene 5.1% ($4,800, ceil 19.8) · 5. Dillon Dingler 2.8% ($5,100, ceil 16.7) · 7. Spencer Torkelson 2.9% ($3,600, ceil 16.6) · 9. Hao-Yu Lee 7.5% ($2,300).
Chalk vs leverage read: McGonigle is the chalk (13.0%) and has the lowest ceiling of the group (12.6). The leverage is the power: Riley Greene at 5.1% with a 19.8 ceiling, Dingler at 2.8% and Torkelson at 2.9% (16.6 ceiling) give you the upside of this stack at a fraction of McGonigle's ownership.
If I'm concentrating exposure, this is the order I'd build it in on confirmed cards:
The through-line: Arizona for the clean blend, Atlanta for the power leverage, Pittsburgh for the pure ownership edge, Houston for the floor. Those four cover about 80% of my exposure.
Six arms, ranked by projection and ceiling with matchup and ownership weighted in. The headline: the best pitcher on the slate is now the fourth-most-owned.
1. Jacob Misiorowski — MIL RHP 17.9% own
$11,300 · proj 26.3 · ceiling 42.5 · floor 22.5 · own 17.9% — the single best play on the slate at any position, and now less owned than deGrom, Ashcraft and Gilbert. His ceiling (42.5) is more than 10 points clear of the next arm, his floor (22.5) is higher than most arms' projections, and he draws Colorado on the road (implied 3.3). Being the best play and the fourth-most-owned arm is a gift. Play him in cash without hesitation and in the majority of GPP builds.
2. Logan Gilbert — SEA RHP 20.5% own
$10,300 · proj 21.5 · ceiling 32.0 · floor 14.9 · own 20.5% — the best matchup-adjusted arm behind Miso. He's in the lowest-total game on the slate (SEA@TEX, 7.0) against a Texas offense implied for just 2.8. Elite strikeout upside in a get-under spot and the best floor (14.9) of any non-Miso arm. Premier cash arm; in GPP you're paying full price for him.
3. Jacob deGrom — TEX RHP 21.9% own
$10,100 · proj 21.3 · ceiling 30.0 · floor 8.1 · own 21.9% — the other half of that 7.0-total duel, and now the most-owned pitcher on the slate (tied with Ashcraft). The projection is earned — Seattle is middling against velocity and the total is the lowest on the board — but the game-theory read has flipped again: deGrom went from the quieter side of this game to the chalkiest arm on the slate, and his floor (8.1) is barely half of Gilbert's (14.9). If you want this game, Gilbert is now the better-priced side of it.
4. Ranger Suarez — BOS LHP 2.1% own
$9,700 · proj 17.9 · ceiling 28.8 · floor 9.0 · own 2.1% — the leverage arm of the slate, and it got better. He fell from 5.4% to 2.1% on confirmed lineups while carrying a top-4 projection (17.9) and a 28.8 ceiling. The reason the field is off him: Fenway is a top run park and blow-up risk is real. But Toronto is implied for only 3.0 runs, and a 28.8-ceiling arm at one-tenth the ownership of deGrom is exactly the pitcher who wins a tournament. GPP SP1 or SP2; not for cash.
5. Braxton Ashcraft — PIT RHP 21.9% own
$9,000 · proj 17.1 · ceiling 30.1 · floor 5.3 · own 21.9% — the biggest ownership move on the board, and the reason to be careful. He was 10.6% on the earlier pull; he's now tied for the most-owned pitcher on the slate at 21.9%. The play itself is still good — a 30.1 ceiling at $9,000 is real salary value against a Cubs offense implied for 3.8 — but the entire reason we liked him was that nobody had him. His floor (5.3) is the shakiest of any arm in this tier, and short-start/opener usage is a live risk. He's now a cash play, not a leverage play; in large-field GPP, Suarez (2.1%) or Framber (2.5%) get you similar upside at a tenth of the ownership.
6. Framber Valdez — DET LHP 2.5% own
$7,400 · proj 14.6 · ceiling 24.9 · floor 0.0 · own 2.5% — the mid-priced ground-ball arm and the second leverage option. He faces Kansas City (implied 3.8) in pitcher-friendly Comerica, and a 24.9 ceiling at $7,400 and 2.5% owned is strong salary value with built-in differentiation. The 0.0 floor is the honest red flag — this is not a safe arm — but it's the best way to save cap at SP2 without punting. GPP-flexible; risky for cash.
One strong play per slot — the name we'd build around if forced to pick a single option — with its ownership and the leverage alternative.
| Pos | Best Play | Salary | Proj | Ceil | Own% | One-liner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P | Jacob Misiorowski · MIL | $11,300 | 26.3 | 42.5 | 17.9 | Highest floor and highest ceiling among arms, vs a 3.3-implied offense — and now less owned than deGrom, Ashcraft and Gilbert. The lock of the slate. |
| C | Drake Baldwin · ATL | $5,600 | 10.5 | 21.9 | 9.2 | Top catcher proj/ceiling, leadoff in the #1 HR park, and still only 9.2%. Leverage C: Joe Mack (MIA, 7.9 proj, 0.0%, $2,800); pivot: Gabriel Moreno (ARI, 9.7, 9.9%). |
| 1B | Matt Olson · ATL | $5,500 | 10.0 | 19.6 | 3.6 | A 10.0 proj in Camden at 3.6% owned — best chalk-free 1B on the board. Willson Contreras (BOS, 10.0 proj, 0.0%) is the identical projection for free; Ryan O'Hearn (PIT, 20.0 ceil, 0.0%) the cheap version. |
| 2B | Ozzie Albies · ATL | $4,600 | 9.2 | 13.2 | 0.6 | A 9.2 projection at 0.6% owned in the best HR park. Highest projection-to-ownership ratio at the position by a mile. Kody Clemens (MIN, 8.2/17.1 ceil, 3.7%) is the ceiling alt. |
| 3B | Isaac Paredes · HOU | $3,800 | 9.0 | 13.6 | 5.7 | Cheap pull-side power vs homer-prone Fedde at 5.7%. Austin Riley (ATL, 16.3 ceil, 1.1%) is the leverage bomb; Max Muncy (LAD, 9.2, 6.4%) the pay-up alt. |
| SS | Jeremy Pena · HOU | $4,500 | 11.3 | 18.9 | 8.5 | Top-projected hitter on the slate, leadoff vs Fedde, at 8.5%. Best value-plus-leverage on the board. CJ Abrams (WSH, 10.2/23.1 ceil, 11.7%) is the bring-back SS; Cooper Pratt (MIL, 8.2/16.5, 2.6%) the punt. |
| OF | Pete Crow-Armstrong · CHC | $6,100 | 11.6 | 24.3 | 8.1 | Highest OF projection and ceiling on the slate at 8.1% owned — better than Yordan (10.8/23.3) at 17.2%. James Wood (WSH, 11.2/22.9, 6.1%) and Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT, 10.4/20.2, 4.3%) are the other leverage OFs. |
Positional note: the pattern is loud on the final pull — at four of seven slots the best raw play is also the low-owned play. PCA out-projects Yordan and is half the ownership. Matt Olson and Willson Contreras share a 10.0 projection at 3.6% and 0.0%. Albies is a 9.2 at 0.6%. That's unusual, and it means you do not have to trade projection for leverage on this slate — you just have to look past the min-priced chalk (Martin, Vaughn, Cronenworth, Heim, White) the field is using to solve salary.
You cannot fit Misiorowski, a second arm and a full stud stack without cheap bats that actually play. All eight are in confirmed lineups, in plus or neutral matchups, with ownership listed so you know which cheap bats the field is already crowding.
| Player | Pos · Team | Salary | Proj | Ceil | Own% | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Gonzalez | 1B/SS · PIT | $2,400 | 8.2 | 16.7 | 7.2 | 3.4 pts per $1,000 — the best rate on the entire slate. A 16.7 ceiling at $2,400 in a 5.3-implied offense. |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 1B · PIT | $4,600 | 8.3 | 20.0 | 0.0 | A 20.0 ceiling at 0.0% owned, batting fifth in a 5.3-implied lineup. Free-roll leverage. |
| Joc Pederson | OF · TEX | $3,100 | 9.4 | 17.4 | 1.7 | Texas posted late — a 9.4 projection at $3,100 and 1.7% owned. Bad team total (2.8), great price and ownership. |
| Cooper Pratt | SS · MIL | $2,900 | 8.2 | 16.5 | 2.6 | 16.5 ceiling at $2,900 and correlates with a Misiorowski build. Cheap Brewer vs Freeland. |
| Andres Chaparro | 1B · WSH | $2,600 | 8.1 | 18.2 | 3.8 | $2,600 for an 18.2 ceiling batting second in a 10-run game. The best punt on the board. |
| Jake Mangum | OF · PIT | $3,600 | 9.1 | 16.4 | 2.6 | Leadoff in the low-owned Pirates stack; a 9.1 projection at $3,600 is cap relief that plays like a mid-tier bat. |
| Tim Tawa | 1B/OF · ARI | $3,100 | 7.6 | 15.7 | 2.6 | Extends the #1 stack for min-price. A 15.7 ceiling vs Mikolas at 2.6% owned. |
| Joe Mack | C · MIA | $2,800 | 7.9 | 12.8 | 0.0 | 0.0% owned catcher at $2,800 projecting 7.9. Unlocks a stud C-slot elsewhere or a second stack. |
Value note — this is where the field is crowded. The cheap bats everyone is using to solve salary are Austin Martin (MIN, $2,800, 17.0%), Andrew Vaughn (MIL, $3,200, 16.9%), Jake Cronenworth (SD, $2,600, 16.8%), Jonah Heim (ATH, $2,800, 13.6%), Tommy White (ATH, $2,400, 13.0%) and Alex Jackson (MIN, $2,200, 11.6%). Every one of those is a min-price body with a sub-14 ceiling. The eight bats in the table above beat all six on ceiling at comparable price and a fraction of the ownership — that swap alone is the single easiest edge available on this slate. Deeper sub-$3,000 punts that project: Luis Campusano (SD C, $3,500, 7.0 proj, 0.0%) and Zach Dezenzo (HOU OF, $2,100, 6.4 proj, 3.8%).
Three cap-legal DraftKings Classic lineups (10 roster spots: 2 P, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, $50,000 cap). Every player is in a posted lineup, every position slot is validated, no team exceeds the 5-hitter limit, and all three span multiple games.
1. Cash / Single-Entry — highest floor safe
The double-ace, best-bats build. Misiorowski (22.5 floor) and Gilbert (14.9 floor in the 7.0-total game) are the two sturdiest arms on the board, and the eight hitters are anchored by a full 5-man Houston stack against homer-prone Erick Fedde, filled out with three cheap in-order bats from three other games. Contact and floor over ceiling — in cash, ownership doesn't matter.
| Pos | Player · Team | Salary | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|
| P | Jacob Misiorowski · MIL | $11,300 | 26.3 |
| P | Logan Gilbert · SEA | $10,300 | 21.5 |
| C | Gabriel Moreno · ARI | $4,600 | 9.7 |
| 1B | LaMonte Wade Jr. · HOU | $2,900 | 6.5 |
| 2B | Jose Altuve · HOU | $4,000 | 8.0 |
| 3B | Isaac Paredes · HOU | $3,800 | 9.0 |
| SS | Jeremy Pena · HOU | $4,500 | 11.3 |
| OF | Heriberto Hernandez · MIA | $3,400 | 9.7 |
| OF | Joc Pederson · TEX | $3,100 | 9.4 |
| OF | Zach Dezenzo · HOU | $2,100 | 6.4 |
Total salary: $50,000 / $50,000 (exactly at cap) · projected 117.9 · ceiling 189.8. Five Houston bats (Wade/Altuve/Paredes/Pena/Dezenzo) is the max DraftKings allows from one team. Moreno adds the #1-stack catcher, Heriberto and Pederson are the two highest-projection sub-$3,500 outfielders on the board. If you want more ceiling in a single-entry MME, swap Dezenzo for Yordan and drop Moreno to Joe Mack ($2,800).
2. Large-Field GPP — the leverage build leverage
The tournament shape on this slate isn't the 10-run game — the field is already there. It's a 5-man Atlanta power stack in the #1 HR park, backed by a 3-man Miami secondary (highest team projection on the board), behind the two cheapest-owned quality arms in the game. Total ownership across all ten roster spots is roughly 40 points — less than half the cash build. If Atlanta hits two homers in Camden, almost no one has this.
| Pos | Player · Team | Salary | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|
| P | Ranger Suarez · BOS 2.1% | $9,700 | 17.9 |
| P | Framber Valdez · DET 2.5% | $7,400 | 14.6 |
| C | Drake Baldwin · ATL | $5,600 | 10.5 |
| 2B | Ozzie Albies · ATL 0.6% | $4,600 | 9.2 |
| 3B | Austin Riley · ATL 1.1% | $4,100 | 7.0 |
| OF | Michael Harris II · ATL | $5,100 | 9.6 |
| SS | Jim Jarvis · ATL 0.6% | $3,200 | 6.8 |
| 1B | Kyle Stowers · MIA | $3,900 | 9.1 |
| OF | Heriberto Hernandez · MIA | $3,400 | 9.7 |
| OF | Esteury Ruiz · MIA | $2,900 | 9.0 |
Total salary: $49,900 / $50,000 ($100 under) · projected 103.5 · ceiling 184.6. Five Braves + three Marlins, two sub-3%-owned arms. The projection sits below the cash build by design — you're buying the tail, not the median. The chalk-up pivot if you want more floor: Matt Olson (3.6%) in for Jarvis, dropping Ruiz to a $2,400 punt.
3. Mid-Field — balanced 5-3 game stack balanced
The 20-to-150-max sweet spot: pay all the way up for Misiorowski, pair the under-owned Andrew Abbott (4.7%), and split the ARI@WSH 10-run game five-and-three — skipping Corbin Carroll's 15.1% chalk and taking the cheaper half of Arizona's order instead. It captures both sides of a 10.0 total so a shootout pays twice, while keeping enough projection to hold up if the slate runs normal.
| Pos | Player · Team | Salary | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|
| P | Jacob Misiorowski · MIL | $11,300 | 26.3 |
| P | Andrew Abbott · CIN 4.7% | $7,500 | 15.9 |
| 2B | Ketel Marte · ARI | $4,800 | 8.2 |
| SS | Geraldo Perdomo · ARI | $4,300 | 9.1 |
| 3B | Nolan Arenado · ARI 2.9% | $3,400 | 8.1 |
| OF | Max Kepler · ARI 4.3% | $3,300 | 7.6 |
| C | Adrian Del Castillo · ARI 1.4% | $2,900 | 7.8 |
| OF | James Wood · WSH 6.1% | $6,700 | 11.2 |
| 1B | Andres Chaparro · WSH 3.8% | $2,600 | 8.1 |
| OF | Jacob Young · WSH | $2,900 | 6.4 |
Total salary: $49,700 / $50,000 ($300 under) · projected 108.7 · ceiling 184.4. Five Diamondbacks + three Nationals on the 10.0-total ARI@WSH game — both offenses face soft arms (Mikolas 7.7 / Kohl Drake 11.3), so if the game goes over you catch both sides. Abbott is the leverage lever that fits Misiorowski without punting SP2. Swap Jacob Young for CJ Abrams ($6,200, 23.1 ceiling) by dropping Marte to Tim Tawa if you want more raw ceiling.
With final ownership, the leverage map is no longer a guess. Three tiers:
You don't blindly fade good chalk, but you should know where the field is stacked and have a pivot ready. deGrom and Ashcraft (both 21.9%) are the most-owned arms — the pivot off deGrom is same-game Gilbert (better floor), and the pivot off Ashcraft is Suarez (2.1%) or Blanco (2.0%). Sheehan (17.0%) is over-owned for a 14.4 projection — fade toward Abbott or Prielipp. Yordan (17.2%) is the most-owned bat — pivot inside the same lineup to Pena (8.5%), Altuve (2.3%) or Yainer Diaz (0.6%). And the biggest single edge: the min-priced chalk — Royce Lewis 17.5%, Austin Martin 17.0%, Andrew Vaughn 16.9%, Cronenworth 16.8%, Heim 13.6%, Tommy White 13.0%. Every one has a sub-14 ceiling. Swap them for Jacob Gonzalez ($2,400, 16.7 ceiling, 7.2%), Chaparro ($2,600, 18.2 ceiling, 3.8%) or Joe Mack ($2,800, 0.0%) and you gain ceiling and shed ownership at the same time. The rule: pivot inside a good game to a lower-owned bat; don't abandon the game.
On a 12-game slate the correct default is one primary 4-5 man stack plus a 2-3 man secondary, not one team spammed. DraftKings caps you at 5 hitters per team, and the two 10-run games are built for the bring-back: stack Arizona 5-deep and pair Washington bats (James Wood 6.1%, CJ Abrams 11.7% — both 22+ ceilings vs Kohl Drake) so that if the game goes over you catch both sides. Same logic for Minnesota + an Athletic. The one shape the field isn't running: Atlanta 5 + Miami 3, two 5.0-implied offenses with the two best team projections on the board and almost no combined ownership. That's build #2 above and it's my highest-ceiling non-obvious construction.
All 24 lineups are confirmed and the ownership tells you exactly where to go. Pay all the way up for Misiorowski — he's the best play on the slate and the fourth-most-owned arm, which almost never happens. Anchor a second arm that isn't the 21.9% chalk: Gilbert in cash, Ranger Suarez (2.1%) or Ronel Blanco (2.0%) in tournaments. Then make your money at the stack level: Arizona is the sharpest blend of total-park-arm, Atlanta is the best leverage stack on the board (third-highest team projection, #1 HR park, entire order under 10% owned), Houston has the best bats, and Miami quietly has the highest team projection of anyone. Remember Josh Bell is out, Kody Clemens bats fifth at 3.7% not third at 0.0%, and Texas has posted with Wyatt Langford at 0.6%.