Three games, two mega-chalk aces, one mispriced superstar bat. Small slates are won by whoever handles the chalk correctly — here's the map.
🔒 COURTEDGE PREMIUM
Unlock the full playbook
The core, stacks, arms board, value bats and fades with the full reasoning, the sub-3% leverage bats, data-backed fades, and three cap-legal builds our subscribers are entering.
What you get with CourtEdge Premium
- ✅ All premium picks daily — posted before lock, graded win or lose
- ✅ Every lineup lab — MLB, PGA, NBA, MMA — sim-built, ownership-leveraged
- ✅ Live +EV board — model vs 20+ books
- ✅ Every premium write-up — including this one
See live picks & track record at courtedge.net/picks
🌎 Game environments
| Game | Total | Implied | The read |
|---|
| ARI @ LAD (4:10) | 9.8 | LAD 5.7 / ARI 4.1 | The slate's engine. LAD vs Bratt is the best bat spot of the day. Full showdown-style attention — separate showdown article here. |
| COL @ SF (4:05) | 9.5 | SF 5.05 / COL 4.45 | Sneaky second stack game — SF implied over 5 with Devers mispriced, and COL's top of the order (Moniak/McCarthy) is live against McDonald if the chalk arm wobbles. |
| SD @ TOR (4:07) | 8.9 | TOR 4.76 / SD 4.15 | Gausman's floor game and the value mine: FIVE Toronto bats under $3,100 with confirmed lineup spots. |
⭐ The core — 7 names, tagged
| Player | Pos | $ | Proj | Own | Tag | Why |
|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 1B/OF | $6,700 | 11.0 | 35.2% | ✅🚀 | Best bat on the slate, leadoff in the 5.7-run offense. Chalk that's right — eat it. |
| Kevin Gausman (TOR) | SP | $9,900 | 15.8 | 51.7% | ✅ | Highest ceiling arm (p95 32.1) vs SD's 4.15. The cash anchor. |
| Emmet Sheehan (LAD) | SP | $9,400 | 16.0 | 54.7% | ✅ | Co-ace, same ceiling; in GPPs pick ONE ace and get different in bats. |
| Rafael Devers (SF) | 3B | $3,900 | 9.3 | 18.9% | ✅🚀 | THE mispricing: cleanup bat, 25-point ceiling, $3.9K. Highest projection-per-dollar among all bats. Play him everywhere. |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 2B | $5,000 | 8.9 | 27.3% | ✅ | Best ARI ceiling (26) — the bridge bat of the big game. |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | OF | $2,900 | 8.2 | 19.6% | 🚀 | $2.9K for a 23-point ceiling in the 5-hole. The value that funds double-stud builds. |
| TJ Rumfield (COL) | 1B | $3,500 | 7.6 | 8.9% | 🚀 | Sub-9% owned cleanup bat — the leverage value seat of the afternoon. |
How to use the core: anchor with one ace + Ohtani, buy Devers/Varsho/Rumfield to fund a second stud, then finish with a stack from the board below. Assemble your own 10-man in the Builder + Sim — never copy a build, sim your candidates and keep what tops Win%/Ceiling.
💵 THE CASH CORE — 8 locks, 2 seats left for you
Lock these eight in the Hand Builder — both aces, the mispriced stud, and the floor values — and your two open seats are exactly C and 2B:
| Lock | Pos | $ | Why he's core |
|---|
| Kevin Gausman | P | $9,900 | Highest-ceiling arm vs SD's 4.15 implied. |
| Emmet Sheehan | P | $9,400 | Co-ace — double-ace is correct in cash. |
| Shohei Ohtani | OF | $6,700 | Best bat on the slate, leadoff in the 5.7-run offense. |
| Rafael Devers | 3B | $3,900 | The mispricing of the day — $5.5K production. |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | $3,200 | 3-hole floor at a value-bat price. |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | $3,500 | Cleanup floor, 8.9% owned. |
| Daulton Varsho | OF | $2,900 | Best value on the slate — 5-hole, 23 ceiling. |
| Nathan Lukes | OF | $2,700 | Cash-safe 2-hole in the value mine. |
Core total: $42,200 — leaving $7,800 for YOUR two seats (C + 2B). The premium finish: Ketel Marte 2B ($5,000) + a $2,800 catcher. Want a stronger catcher? Drop to a cheaper 2B and spend up behind the plate. Either way you're cap-legal with the safest 8-man spine on the slate already locked.
🧱 Top stacks
| # | Stack | Implied | The four | Call |
|---|
| 1 | LAD | 5.7 | Ohtani · Pages · Freeman · Betts | ✅ The right chalk stack vs Bratt |
| 2 | SF | 5.05 | Devers · Schmitt · Adames · Eldridge | 🚀 Same environment, half the ownership |
| 3 | TOR | 4.76 | Vlad Jr. · Okamoto · Varsho · Clement | ✅ The value stack — four bats ~$13K combined |
| 4 | COL | 4.45 | McCarthy · Moniak · Rumfield | 🚀 Pure leverage vs the 39.8%-owned arm |
| 5 | ARI | 4.1 | Marte · Carroll · Perdomo | 🚀 GPP-only, lives with a Sheehan fade |
⚾ Arms board
| Arm | $ | Proj | p95 | Own | Call |
|---|
| Emmet Sheehan (LAD) | $9,400 | 16.0 | 32.0 | 54.7% | ✅ cash |
| Kevin Gausman (TOR) | $9,900 | 15.8 | 32.1 | 51.7% | ✅ cash |
| Trevor McDonald (SF) | $7,300 | 12.7 | 28.5 | 39.8% | ✅ the salary-saver |
| Michael Lorenzen (COL) | $5,600 | 9.4 | 25.7 | 18.3% | 🚀 SP2 leverage at $5.6K |
| German Marquez (SD) | $6,800 | 9.3 | 24.8 | 15.8% | 🚀 GPP-only |
The two-arm math: on a 3-game slate the field will pair Sheehan+Gausman in half its lineups ($19.3K in arms). That pairing is FINE in cash. In GPPs, one ace + Lorenzen/McDonald frees $3–4K — that's a Devers-to-Ohtani upgrade, and it makes your bats unique while the field shares identical arms.
💰 Value board (≤$3,600, confirmed spots)
| Bat | $ | Proj | Own | Call |
|---|
| Daulton Varsho (TOR, 5th) | $2,900 | 8.2 | 19.6% | ✅🚀 best value on the slate |
| Willy Adames (SF, 7th) | $3,600 | 7.8 | 12.7% | 🚀 SF stack glue |
| TJ Rumfield (COL, 4th) | $3,500 | 7.6 | 8.9% | 🚀 leverage cleanup |
| Sean Keys (TOR, 7th) | $2,300 | 7.5 | 6.7% | 🚀 the sub-7% punt that isn't a punt |
| Nathan Lukes (TOR, 2nd) | $2,700 | 7.4 | 13.3% | ✅ cash-safe 2-hole |
| Bryce Eldridge (SF, 6th) | $3,400 | 7.2 | 5.2% | 🚀 5% owned in a 5-run offense |
🚫 Smart fades
- Casey Schmitt ($4,500, 30.1%) — fade at the ownership. Third-highest bat ownership on the slate for the 11th-best projection. If you want SF, Devers+Adames+Eldridge is the same offense at a fraction of the field.
- Ernie Clement ($3,000, 28.3%) — cash-fine, GPP fade. 28% on a $3K leadoff is dupe glue; Lukes/Keys give you the same Toronto innings unowned.
- Mitch Bratt ($6,500, 14.5%) — the arm into 5.7 implied runs. No version of this is right on a 3-game slate.
- Not a fade: the aces. 50%+ ownership that is ALSO the top projection isn't a trap — it's the toll. Pay it in cash; pick one in GPPs.
Every pick graded & published, win or lose. Build your own: MLB Builder + Sim · Hand Builder — afternoon slate loaded.